The University of Arizona

Climate Projections for the Southwest: A Collaboration with NOAA-ESRL | CLIMAS

Climate Projections for the Southwest: A Collaboration with NOAA-ESRL

Climate Projections for the Southwest: A Collaboration with NOAA-ESRL

Lead Investigator:  

CLIMAS is identifying stakeholder-relevant climate projections for the Southwest, including extreme events. Using this information, CLIMAS will partner with NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Climate Analysis Branch to evaluate the ability of the latest generation of climate models—those from the IPCC AR5/CMIP5 models as well as regional models derived from these—to simulate and project the identified analyses. NOAA ESRL processes the resources needed to store and analyze the full suite of CMIP5 model simulations from the 20 international modeling groups. When projections meet performance measures deemed adequate for the decision, CLIMAS will generate the projections. Moreover, CLIMAS will produce a reference guide to help decision makers and CLIMAS PIs understand the limitations and advantages of different models and climate variables. This project will also help ESRL refine its on-line climate projection web tool.

As part of this project, a survey of approximately 250 stakeholders in the Southwest was conducted during the summer of 2012. The information gathered from this survey will help identify the climate extremes that most concern people from different sectors across the region.