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In this Section:
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Background |
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Project Overview |
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Research Methods |
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Status of Project |
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Related Links |
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Contacts |
El
Niño often brings increased moisture to the Southwest, but is the
end of the current drought in sight?
Research
and Products:
END
InSight: El Niño-Drought Initiative
Research Methods
Stakeholders
We invited a group of about 35 stakeholders from throughout Arizona and New Mexico to participate in a yearlong project (July 2002-July 2003) to improve the use and usability of climate information. Participants in the project included land, wildlife, and water resource managers; agricultural extension agents; fire managers; ranchers; environmental organizations; members of the media and tourism sectors; community development specialists; and energy sector representatives.
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| Figure 1. Location of stakeholders participating in the END InSight Initiative. [more details] |
Monthly Climate Packets
Each month the CLIMAS team created an information packet based on climate and forecast products from our partner agencies:
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NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center
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Western Regional Climate Center
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NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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National Weather Service
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California Applications Project
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National Interagency Coordination Center
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Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center
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National Drought Mitigation Center
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International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
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New Mexico Natural Resource Conservation Service
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| Figure 2. Sample page from monthly climate packet and [More details] |
Recent conditions: temperature, precipitation, drought status, reservoir levels, and snowpack
Monthly-to-seasonal forecasts: temperature, precipitation, PDSI and drought outlook, fire, streamflow, hazards assessment, and ENSO
"Focus" pages: special topics such as forecast interpretation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), floods, monsoon patterns, and tropical storms
We provided value-added information to help stakeholders interpret each climate product. Each packet also included an executive summary and newsletter with background articles that complement the focus page topics.
Surveys
In the first half of the project, monthly surveys asked participants to review and rate approximately 20 climate products according to:
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General impression
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Adequacy of lead time
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Level of detail
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Ease of understanding
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Graphic style
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Actions taken based on packet material
During the latter half of the project short questionnaires and telephone interviews were used to refine the initial data gathered. We are analyzing this information to determine how usable and understandable the materials are that we send out and we might improve the information we send.
Media Briefings
We maintained contacts with news media throughout the project to assure that media representatives and the public received timely information about changing drought conditions and El Niño impacts.
Throughout the project, we convened a series of press briefings in Tucson, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Phoenix in conjunction with SAHRA (the NSF Science & Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas). The briefings, which have continued beyond the one-year project, provide an opportunity for media representatives to interact directly with experts in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, ecology, or other appropriate fields and obtain the latest information, ask questions, and discuss potential implications at regional and local levels.
More generally, we have kept the lines of communication open with the media to provide regionally relevant expert insight, analysis, and synthesis of recent conditions, forecasts, and potential impacts.
News Analysis
We developed a database of recent newspaper reports regarding weather and climate in the Southwest, gleaned from local, regional, and national news sources. This activity allows us to trace changes in the conciseness, accuracy, breadth, and subject matter that makes it into published coverage of climate forecasts, conditions, and impacts, and gain insight into issues of concern to the public in our region.
Communications with Policymakers
We sent out monthly highlights of climate conditions, forecasts, and events to legislators and other concerned public representatives. These materials enable our representatives to remain up-to-date on the latest information and alert them to potential areas of concern. Upon request, we provided additional information to them and tried to provide answers to any questions.
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