This chapter synthesizes the findings of the study into general themes. These themes pull together stakeholder responses to provide a overview of the salient issues that emerged from the interviews.

Complexity and Frequency of Information Use

As we expected, the complexity and frequency of climate information use varied between and within stakeholder communities. This variation can be characterized to describe several categories of climate information users.

For the purposes of this study, we have defined complex information as that which originates from sources beyond the conventional climate information systems (such as TV, radio, and the newspapers). Conversely, we are referring to information acquired through conventional information systems as basic information. The Local Climatological Data from the NOAA National Climate Data Center is one example of a complex climate information system, while radio and television forecasts are examples of basic information systems.

The frequency of information use is also an important distinction between stakeholders. A frequent user is defined as one who consults climate information regularly, typically on a daily or weekly basis, while an infrequent user consults climate information irregularly or less often than weekly.

It was found that complexity and frequency do not necessarily correspond, but rather that numerous possible combinations exist (see Table 3.1) For example, both users of complex and basic climate information may consult climate information systems infrequently. The distinction between complexity and frequency of use generally corresponds to respondent occupation. As shown below range land managers, who consult historic averages for rainfall, temperatures and soil moisture, use complex information systems such as USGS and NOAA, but do so infrequently (maybe on a monthly or seasonal basis). Discrepancies in this pattern are often explained by the size of the town or city in which the respondents work; smaller towns reported limited access to climate information. This is true in the case of emergency response managers. In smaller towns these individuals did not have the capacity to consult complex information systems regularly and so rely daily on the radio and TV for their weather and climate information needs.

 

Information Use and Vulnerability

Complexity and frequency of climate information help delineate the core office’s potential clientele and the best way to serve them. Frequent users of complex information clearly have greater needs than infrequent users of basic information. This is not meant to suggest, however, that the core office ought to ignore current non-users; indeed, they may be highly vulnerable to climate variation and climate change. The degree of stakeholder vulnerability, even for current non-users, should be factored into to the core office’s client-targeting decision.

Water providers represent the group which may be most vulnerable despite their basic and infrequent use of information. We assumed water providers to be one of the categories in need of better climate information, yet this category was found to be comprised of both users of basic and complex information, perhaps because some water providers do not see a clear connection between climate and their operations. For these users, climate falls low on their list of priority concerns, especially in cases where they see themselves as having been insulated -- rightly or wrongly -- by construction of the CAP and the enactment of the Groundwater Management Act which regulates groundwater pumping in areas of high demand.

The varying ease of access to pertinent climate information further complicates the ability of stakeholders to use complex information. One respondent, a general manager of a water company of a medium urban city, reported actively pursuing climate information, usually to no avail until he recently stumbled upon the evapotransporation rates he has been seeking on the Internet. The respondent remains receptive to climate information, but he still lacks adequate information and the information-gathering experience to integrate climate factors into his decision-making. In another example, the general manager of another water provider suggested that climate did not figure largely into the decision-making process of the organization, despite the volatile water issues that surround the city’s aquifer.

 

Table 3.1 Climate Information Use Patterns by Occupation

                                                                              

	User of Basic Information	User of Complex Information
Frequent User	Emergency Management (Small town) Utilities Farmers	Emergency Management (Large City) Water Provider (Surface Water) Farmers
Infrequent User	Water provider (Groundwater) Public officials Land Manager (State park mangers, developers)	Land Manager (Range Land Management)

 

Summary

In sum, indicators of the complexity and frequency of climate information use suggest those stakeholder communities most likely to make use of the CLIMAS core office. At the same time, it is important to take into account those individuals who, although lacking access to and/or knowledge of existing climate information systems, may be vulnerable to climate change and variability. These stakeholders might benefit significantly from the core office’s services in the future (See Chapter IV for a more detailed discussion).

 

Temporal Scale of Climate Data — Weather vs. Climate Information

Although nearly all the respondents demonstrated an interest in the interview topic, the type of information they used and needed varied greatly. One component of this variation was the temporal scale of climate data in which the participants expressed interest. Interviewees expressed a need for a range of climate information products, including paleoclimatic records, "real-time" measurements, and both short-term and longer-term forecasting. While all participants expressed curiosity about climate, the interviews revealed a distinction between those who rely on weather information and those who have a need for climate information of a broader temporal scale.

As indicated in Chapter Two, weather and climate have been given specific definitions for the purpose of this study. Weather is defined to include events occurring from the present moment to a maximum of 30 days, and climate as patterns of events that extend beyond 30 days. Respondents who used historic data to identify extreme events were identified as weather information users, while those stakeholders interested in identifying trends or establishing a "norm" from the historic record were identified as climate information users. Based on this distinction, approximately half of all respondents expressed a need for climate information or predictions.

 

Reliance Upon Short-Term Forecasts

The bulk of the interview participants rely on the mass-media for climate-related information and weather predictions. They often conceptualize climate trends in terms of "global warming", yet make decisions based on the weekly forecast. All participants expressed at least some level of climate "consciousness," regardless of occupational category or decision-making capacity. There was less reliance on long-term climate forecasts than expected, however, as was the case for both the extent of current climate information use and the expressed need for climate information. Short-term weather forecasts were widely used among those interviewed and appeared to be of greatest utility in day-to-day decision-making. This information need was largely satisfied through existing media outlets (such as the Tucson television stations).

Beyond the ubiquitous use of mass-media forecasts among interviewees, users of complex climate information emphasized a need for improved short-term predictive forecasts. Many interviewees indicated that they go beyond the regular media outlets to consult the National Weather Service or NOAA by weather radio, Internet, or telephone.

Emergency response officials provide an example of a complex need for short-term forecasting. Several respondents expressed an interest in better tracking and prediction of convective storm cells during the summer monsoon season. Many of these officials currently utilize an Internet web page featuring Doppler Radar images of storm cells, which they used to improve their ability to predict locations where emergency response might be needed. These attempts to "fine-tune" local forecasts corresponded with a wide-spread desire to better understand what, when, and how local atmospheric conditions might develop.

Another example of an entity needing accurate short-term forecasting is the local natural gas utility in Tucson. A planner for the local office of this company must decide roughly four days in advance how much gas to purchase through a pipeline from El Paso, Texas. Using company-generated 14-day weather forecasts, this planner attempts to meet peak demands without overbuying and compromising profits. However, like the emergency management agencies mentioned above, even the need for more complex information articulated by this respondent was limited to short-term weather forecasts.

 

Reliance Upon Climate Data of Broader Scope

The pilot study team identified several occupational groups which expressed a need for climate information with a long temporal horizon. This broader interest correlates in many cases with how sensitive the user is to climate variation. The decision-making capacity of stakeholders in the face of such variability may also be a factor with regard to the temporal scale of the information needed. In general, stakeholders who manage land or whose farms appear to be sensitive to climate variability have the decision-making capacity to incorporate information of a broader temporal scope into their operations. A farmer’s cotton crop, for example, is extremely sensitive to temperature changes and precipitation during the planting and harvesting season. Climate information projecting average temperatures 30 days in advance, or climate information using historic averages to identify the likely start date of the summer monsoons, could help a farmer make sound decisions about seed variety and planting dates, thereby mitigating some of the inherent climate vulnerabilities of farming. Likewise, a rancher or federal land manager who must oversee the long-term health of grazing lands may have a greater interest in information extending into the future or information documenting the past beyond the daily or five-day weather forecast.

 

Summary

The temporal scale of the climate information used or needed by the respondents varies greatly. Certain sectors, such as farming and land management, demonstrated a need for information of a broader temporal scale, in part due to their climate sensitivity and long-term decision-making capacity. The stakeholders of southern Arizona appear to need more spatial and temporal accuracy in forecasts extending no further than a month. This is best characterized as "weather" rather than "climate" information. Although this pilot assessment did not set out to distinguish between these types of users, it may be useful in the future to do so. This shift in focus might reveal that the limited use of historic or longer-term forecasts was in part due to institutional constraints, short decision-making or planning horizons, a failure on the part of stakeholders to perceive the implications of larger-scale climate variability, or additional factors.

 

Spatial Resolution of Climate Data

Many of the people interviewed in the pilot study expressed dissatisfaction with the way climate information systems portray rural climate conditions. There is a sense of metropolitan bias in the information they receive and rely upon, particularly for those interviewees located some distance from the metropolitan centers of Tucson or Phoenix. This trend is particularly prominent with users of basic climate information (who typically rely solely on television and radio forecasts from large metropolitan centers). Such dissatisfaction, which ultimately derives from the spatial resolution of short-term forecasting, also applies to users of more complex information, such as emergency response personnel.

 

Arizona’s Summer Monsoons and Where Information Falls Short

Results of the pilot survey indicate that, in southern Arizona, the dissatisfaction with short-term forecasting is often related to the prediction of convective storm cells during the summer-monsoon season. Because these storms are highly localized, they are notoriously difficult to predict. One stakeholder, an emergency management official, noted that his town was particularly vulnerable to flooding. Reports on the location and intensity of storm cells provide vital predictive information for emergency preparation. The town’s reception of the signal from Tucson television stations is weak, however, and the forecasts produced by these stations (and by the National Weather Service) do not adequately represent local conditions. This stakeholder, like many others in rural locations, wishes that his town could obtain more specific predictions and of local weather.

This issue of spatial resolution was raised primarily by those stakeholders who rely on short-term forecasting. The relative paucity of users of complex information in this study prevented us from better understanding whether spatial resolution might also be an issue for those relying on longer-term forecasts or historic data.

 

Summary

While the question of spatial resolution was a common one, especially regarding prediction of monsoon storm cells, the reasons for the dissatisfaction with storm predictions reside very much in the phenomenon of the monsoon itself. Current forecasting fails to accurately predict the behavior of these systems with much accuracy, as current technology does not allow precise forecasting of the monsoon storm cells. Other issues of spatial resolution and local coverage (like local wind direction and speed) may be less difficult to address theoretically, but they require capital expenditures for remote weather stations. Because of these problems, the need for better microclimate information was frequently expressed by the participating stakeholders. Access to accurate microclimate information is particularly essential to those occupational groups responding to short-term predictions.

 

Constraints to the Use of Climate Information

As we have stated before, most people we interviewed expressed an interest in climate at some level, perhaps because most stakeholders recognize that climate impacts their jobs and/or livelihoods in some fashion. However, beyond this recognition there is a great deal of variation in the use of climate information to comprehend or mitigate these perceived impacts. This variation can be partly attributed to institutional and personal constraints resulting from the stakeholders’ occupational activities.

 

Climate Sensitivity and Information Use

This study did not seek to understand the climate sensitivities or vulnerabilities of interviewees per se; rather, we sought a better understanding of access to and use of climate information systems. Through our questions about how climate and climate information affects job responsibilities, however, we were able to generally gauge the impacts of climate variability on various stakeholders and occupational categories. As may be expected, the climate sensitivity or vulnerability of a stakeholder appears to constrain the degree to which he/she uses climate information. For occupation sectors like farming, the relatively high sensitivity to climate drives individuals to consult varied sources of information.

An emergency management official in a medium urban provides an example of low climate sensitivity and the use of basic information. For this official, the bulk of his workload (emergency medical calls and household fires) is not particularly climate-sensitive. Even those climatic events (such as flooding) that might cause problems are not a particular concern because the location, infrastructure, and design of the city puts it largely out of harm’s way. In this case, a lack of vulnerability translates into a perceived lack of need for and use of climate information. Alternatively, one small, family farmer we interviewed appeared highly sensitive to climate, yet he only consulted basic climate information. Two factors explain this. At the time this individual lacked a computer, an essential tool for access to many of the climate information systems. Furthermore, this individual feels skeptical about climate information products which he has associated with the "politically motivated" global warming literature.

 

Decision-Making Capacity and Information Use

In addition to the sensitivity or vulnerability of stakeholders, the decision-making capacity they possess in the face of climate variability is also a major constraining factor in information use. While most interviewees perceived that climate had an impact on their livelihoods at some level, not everyone had the same capacity to respond in meaningful ways.

Certain stakeholders possess the ability to make decisions and alter their course of action in the face of climate variability. For these people, having appropriate climate information at the appropriate time can facilitate good decision-making and help them avoid adverse climate impacts. For other stakeholders, the best climate information available will not be of use because they do not possess the capacity act upon it. In essence, these people’s hands are tied. In many cases, relevant decisions are made elsewhere; in other cases, there are no viable alternatives to the current course. The ability or inability to make decisions, in particular settings, are referred to as organizational constraints because the structure of the organization in which they work often enables or constrains what choices can be made in a variety of climatic circumstances. In one case, a biologist was hired by a military base to direct a long-term ecosystem management project which was canceled soon after his arrival. This individual has continued to build a detailed database of the local ecology, but has no capacity to affect land use in the area.

As might be expected, organizational factors create variation in the type of climate information needed. Those who have decision-making capacity, like farmers and land managers, are more likely to use climate information because it may prove useful in selecting appropriate courses of action. For these stakeholders, greater quantities of climate information improve their position.

Stakeholders in the service and tourism industry, however, are faced with a vastly different scenario. For the owners of resorts and other facilities that depend on tourist revenue, cold or rainy weather in Arizona may translate into a significant decline in business. As the study participants indicated, even their best efforts to recruit clientele through marketing and lowering rates during periods of unpleasant weather rarely succeed in improving the market.

 

Perception of Climate and Climate Information

Perceptions of climate and climate information play an integral role in determining whether stakeholders incorporate climate information into their decision-making and planning. Many of the respondents expressed a fatalistic attitude about climate and doubt concerning the ability of forecasters to make accurate predictions. Other stakeholders were less skeptical about climate research and forecasts, but still did not perceive a link between such information and their professional occupations.

For some of the interviewees, climate was an easily-recognized factor in their livelihoods; it took little prompting for them to sketch out the connections between climate, climate information, and their job responsibilities. Others lacked interest in the connection between climate and their livelihood (even in situations where we, as interviewers, perceived direct connections). While the degree of stakeholder curiosity is not measurable, we quickly recognized a strong tie between climate curiosity and the use of weather information. Certain stakeholders are not particularly vulnerable, do not have decision-making capacity, but nonetheless frequently consult climate information. Others are aware of climate but made little effort to seek climate information.

The inability of some interviewees to use climate information in these cases appeared to relate to the fatalism and skepticism mentioned above. An emergency management official in Tucson expressed this sentiment in the following statement: "You can make guesses about climate, but Mother Nature will do what she wants." Other interviewees used the example of the recent predictions about Hurricane Nora to express skepticism about climate and weather forecasting. This hurricane was predicted to produce heavy rain and localized flooding in some parts of Arizona, including Tucson. Many emergency response officials prepared for this event only to have no precipitation fall at all. "The sand bags are still in my trunk," commented one fire chief.

Some may be skeptical because of inaccurate predictions. Such examples, however, may simply confirm existing attitudes about climate and climate predictions held by those who are skeptical in the first place. Although not all stakeholders share this perspective, this does demonstrate how personal viewpoint appears to be an important factor in constraining how individuals value climate and various climate-information products.

 

Economic Constraints

Some stakeholders do not consult climate information because they cannot afford the time or materials (i.e. computer, Internet access) required to locate the information. One federal employee responsible for monitoring range conditions complained that he is not in direct connection with the University of Arizona and therefore has trouble locating reports. He added that he simply does not have the resources to send someone to the library and he would be greatly assisted by the Core Office if they could index materials relevant to his position. Two of the farmers we interviewed did not have Internet access. The cost of buying a new computer a exceeds the benefit they perceive they will gain from Internet access. Both farmers, however, felt as though they were obligated to eventually purchase a computer.

In general, we found that stakeholders in the private sector and those that work for federal agencies are most likely to face economic constraints. Municipal employees generally encountered other forms of constraints.

 

Climate and Other Factors in Decision-Making

For respondents who possess decision-making capacity in their jobs, businesses, and livelihoods, climate information was seen to be useful in selecting courses of action. However, for many of these individuals, climate was just one of many competing factors that go into decision making. For many of the interviewees, competing factors overwhelm climate in importance and thus constrain the use of climate information. The following topics exemplify the sorts of competing factors that exist:

Politics. In the context of local government, political realities often subsume climatic factors in decisions affecting public resources. While the political exigencies behind such decisions are often short-term in nature, climate information inhabits the longer time scale of coming years or past decades. A city council representative who focuses on natural resource planning responded adamantly in discussion of the possible use of tree-ring records for the long-term understanding of climate and the city’s water resources: "You may be looking at tree-ring data, but down in City Hall they’re not."

Demographics. In the rapidly-growing Southwest, meeting the demands of the expanding population dominates planning. Water providers offer a good example. All urban water providers we interviewed rely upon groundwater sources. While these providers may not be as directly vulnerable to climate variability as surface water suppliers, one might presume that climate information would nonetheless factor into future planning. However, these stakeholders explained that planning is solely predicated upon the demographics of growth in customer base (calculated by extrapolating from past growth). Also notable are constraints posed by Arizona Corporation Commission rules that require private water companies to provide each customer with water of a specified pressure and quality. Citing such constraints, respondents representing private water companies did not perceive a significant role for climate information in future planning. In general, water providers noted that, even if future droughts could be predicted with reasonable accuracy, the demographics of growth provide a more reliable input into planning and decision-making than climate information.

 

Summary

A range of factors constrains the use of climate information by stakeholders. Some of these include low sensitivity to climate variability, lack of decision-making capacity (and other organizational and institutional constraints), personal bias or worldview, and a host of other competing factors. These constraints exist in a complicated mix particular to each individual or organization. However, certain occupational sectors exhibit patterns in the particular kinds of constraints that exist on the use of climate information. We have given some examples of these patterns in the paragraphs above.

The explication of these constraints is not meant to imply that there are sectors of Southern Arizona society for which climate information will never be useful or needed. Instead, our focus on constraints assumes that the use of climate information is not solely determined by the quality of the products themselves, but also by the nature of the intended audience. The reasons people are constrained from using climate information are many, varied and complex. However, it is clear that such constraints must be understood both when identifying the actual and potential stakeholders of the CLIMAS research agenda and how to address their problems of climate information access.

 

Conclusions

The incipient themes from the pilot study give a preliminary view of the composition of stakeholder communities. The complexity of climate information use and the frequency at which users consult climate information systems largely follow occupational lines. The complexity and frequency of information use may not correlate with vulnerability. Rather, the stakeholders that do not consult climate information may be the most vulnerable and could receive substantial benefit from the capacity building and outreach activities of the core office. Several temporal and spatial themes are also of note. On the temporal side, weather, defined as a maximum 30 day outlook, turns out to be as important, if not more, to respondents as climate. Spatially, respondents expressed the frustration at the metropolitan bias of information. This bias neglects the very different climates of regions in Southern Arizona, subsuming them under the forecasts of Tucson or Phoenix. Finally, we found a range of factors that constrain the use of climate information in the Southwest. These include a low sensitivity to climate variability (real or perceived), the greater importance assigned to variables other than climate in decision-making, and the idiosyncrasies of individuals who, based on their own interests and motivations, either utilize or eschew climate information. These themes are all critical to understanding the stakeholder communities in Southern Arizona. We have only scratched the surface of many of these issues, and they merit further study.

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