Publications:
Weather, Climate and Hydrologic Forecasting for the Southwest U.S.

CLIMAS Report Series, CL2-99
October 1999

Holly C. Hartmann, Roger Bales, and Sooroosh Sorooshian

Download PDF File (CL2-99.pdf, 2 MB)

Abstract

In support of the Climate Assessment (CLIMAS) Project for the Southwest, a review was conducted of the current state of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the Southwest. A key element of the review was a workshop that examined the availability, use, accuracy, and value of forecasts, with participants consisting primarily of agency personnel involved in operational forecasting via directly issuing forecasts, providing key data for making forecasts, or serving as a key link for communicating forecasts. The broad range of forecast products encompasses myriad variables, time-scales from minutes to seasons, and lead-times from minutes to over a year. Current forecast products and techniques are reviewed, and implications for use in decision making are discussed. The forecast review identified needs for additional research to be addressed by the CLIMAS Project, including local evaluation of monthly and seasonal climate outlooks, retrospective evaluation of operational water supply outlooks, hindcast reanalysis of probabilistic water supply outlook techniques, and incorporation of climate outlooks into statistical water supply outlook techniques.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Weather Forecasts
Chapter 3: Climate Forecasts
Chapter 4: Hydrologic Forecasts
Chapter 5: Conclusions & Recommendations
References