Forecast Evaluation

Abstract:

This project focused on forecast assessment to help decision makers better decide whether forecasts are appropriate for their specific applications. Forecast assessment included: a) research on forecast communication and interpretation; b) relating forecasts to ancillary information (e.g., historical and recent observations); and c) evaluating forecast performance using methods that reflect the many different ways that forecasts may convey information.

Results from this project helped inform the design of the online and interactive Forecast Evaluation Tool. This tool helps decision makers understand the accuracy and usefulness of CPC forecasts with several customizable analyses.

This project conducted forecast evaluations on four types of forecasts. Links to the following forecast evaluations provide a more complete picture of the specific evaluation, methods, and results.

• Decision-Support Tools
• Ensemble Water Supply Outlooks
• Historical Water Supply Outlooks
• Seasonal Climate Outlooks
   

Related Files:

• Confidence builders: evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives