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El Niño–Southern Oscillation: the causes, impacts in the Southwest, and future
(PDF, 973 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute of the Environment.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2010
Date issued: January 28, 2010
A. Summary
The January 28, 2010 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [January 2010 PDF, 3.56 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– Moderate to severe drought conditions remain across Arizona due to the exceptionally dry 2009 summer and fall. Dry conditions in December and the first half of January have expanded the abnormally dry drought status across central and southern New Mexico. Recent storms, however, will likely improve subsequent drought conditions.
Temperature– New Mexico and the Colorado Plateau have been cooler than average, while warm conditions continue in southwestern Arizona.
Precipitation– Recent storms in January are following the typical El Niño circulation pattern, bringing wet conditions to the Southwest.
ENSO– El Niño conditions remained at moderate levels this past month with sea surface temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the winter and into early spring.
Climate Forecasts– Forecasts call for equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average temperatures through Arizona and western New Mexico into April. Precipitation forecasts suggest above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest through May, mostly due to the current moderate-to-strong El Niño event
The Bottom Line– A series of Pacific storms beginning on January 17 and lasting about five days drenched the Southwest, dropping record-setting snow and rain in many areas of Arizona and New Mexico. These storms interrupted what had been a dry winter and finally reflected the influence of El Niño, which often causes the storm track to pass over the Southwest. Although the highlights in this issue do not reflect all of the precipitation that fell during late January, drought conditions will not be completely alleviated by one wave of storms. More winter precipitation will likely be on the way, as El Niño is forecasted to remain for at least a few more months.
| Winter storms wallop Southwest
Three powerful winter storms rolled into the Southwest one after the other beginning on Monday, January 18. By Saturday, most of Arizona and the western half of New Mexico had been doused in heavy rain and snow and battered by strong winds. During the week, winds gusting up to 94 miles per hour pounded Tucson. On the evening of January 21, Sky Harbor International Airport in Phoenix recorded the lowest air pressure on record at that station, and by the time the clouds gave way to blue skies two days later, the Flagstaff area reported between 55 and 65 inches of snow. Flagstaff’s snowfall accumulation during the five days of stormy weather ranks among the area’s top three largest snowfall events, said Brian Klimowski, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Flagstaff. Most regions in northern Arizona received 20–30 percent of their annual precipitation in one week, he said. The series of storms were swept into the region by a southerly jet stream that was strengthened and positioned over the Southwest in part by El Niño. El Niño, which often brings above-average rain and snow to the region, is currently a moderate-to-strong event and is forecasted to persist into the spring. More rain and snow is necessary to considerably improve drought conditions in many regions of the Southwest and make up for 2009 summer and fall precipitation deficits. | This month's cover photo
Powerful storms draped the Flagstaff, Arizona area in deep snow; some places recorded more than 55 inches. This moonscape-like image shows Sunset Crater National Monument, north of Flagstaff in the morning of January 25. |
Source: Jan Curtis, National Resources Conservation Service. January 25, 2010.
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