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D. Forecast Verification |
Southwest faces diminished stream flows, new water policies (PDF, 206 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - June 2009
Date issued: June 23, 2009
A. Summary
The June 23, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [June 2009 PDF, 3.06 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– Drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico improved slightly, as late May and early June rains soaked many parts of the states.
Temperature– After a record-breaking streak of warmer-than-average temperatures in early May, late May and early June have been generally cooler than average across the Southwest.
Precipitation– A persistent low pressure trough has brought unusual late spring-early summer precipitation to the Southwest in the past 30 days. Most of Arizona and western New Mexico have received 150 to more than 800 percent of average precipitation.
ENSO– Conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean appear favorable for a transition into El Niño conditions in June–August; the expectation is for a weak El Niño into next year.
Monsoon– The start of the monsoon season officially began on June 15 in Arizona, and the expectation for a soggy first-half of the monsoon season continues.
Climate Forecasts– Temperature forecasts through summer show a tilt in the odds toward warmer temperatures, while precipitation forecasts suggest a good chance of wetter-than-average conditions through the monsoon season.
The Bottom Line– It rained somewhere in Arizona every day from May 18 to the end of May, contributing to above-average precipitation in most of the state. Western New Mexico saw similar rain events, and both states experienced improvements in drought conditions. With the expectation that the early monsoon season will be soggy, forecasts suggest additional drought improvement.
| New Report on Climate Change Impacts
Recent warming in the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the nation, driving declines in snowpack and Colorado River flow, according to the new report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. John Holdren, science and technology advisory to President Obama, touted the report as the most up-to-date, comprehensive, and authoritative assessment of present and future climate change impacts in the U.S. Some of the important findings of the report mimic the conclusions of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): global warming is unequivocal and human actions are primarily the cause for the warming. The report, however, draws on more up-to-date information than the IPCC and focuses on the U.S., including the Southwest. Climate change impacts in the Southwest cited in the report will lead to increasingly scarce water supplies, necessitating tradeoffs among competing uses and potentially leading to conflict. The report also emphasizes, among other key findings, that increasing temperature, drought, wildfire, and invasive species will accelerate changes to the southwestern landscape. Jonathan Overpeck, lead investigator of CLIMAS, is among the lead authors of the report. To read the report, visit: | This month's cover photo
The monsoon began officially in Arizona on June 15. National Weather Service and University of Arizona scientists have indicated that monsoon storms, like this one that produced heavy, isolated thunderstorms on the Colorado Plateau in July 2008, will likely bring above-average rain during June and July this year. |
Source: Zack Guido, CLIMAS
| B. Recent Conditions > |