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A. Summary |
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C. Forecasts |
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D. Forecast Verification |
The 2009 southwest monsoon: El Niño’s heavy hand
(PDF, 376 KB)
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Disclaimer |
Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute of the Environment.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2009
Date issued: November 23, 2009
A. Summary
The November 23, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [November 2009 PDF, 2.69 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– In Arizona, the entire state is classified as experiencing abnormally dry conditions or worse while in New Mexico only 29 percent of the state is abnormally dry or worse.
Temperature– For most of Arizona, temperatures have been 0–4 degrees F above average the past 30 days. In New Mexico temperatures ranged from two degress above to two degrees below average.
Precipitation– In the past 30 days, only two storms brought significant precipitation to the Southwest, predominantly benefitting central and eastern New Mexico. All of Arizona has received below-average precipitation, and most of the state has experienced less than 25 percent of average precipitation.
ENSO– El Niño conditions strengthened to moderate levels this past month with sea surface temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees C in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist throughout the winter and early spring seasons.
Climate Forecasts– Seasonal temperature forecasts call for a slightly enhanced chance that temperatures will be above average. For precipitation, the El Niño event heavily influences the seasonal forecasts all of which call for increased chances for precipitation to be above average.
The Bottom Line– All of Arizona continues to be classified with abnormally dry conditions or worse as winter precipitation has not yet helped minimize the effect of a very dry summer monsoon season and temperatures in much of the region have been above-average. However, rain and snow may be on the way as El Niño often brings wetter-than-average conditions to the southern portions of the Southwest. A wet winter, however, is not guaranteed. The last time the Southwest experienced a moderate-strength winter El Nino, dry conditions reigned.
| Drought Planning May Face Funding Challenges
Reforestation often has been lauded as an effective strategy for sucking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and minimizing the global warming effect of the heat-trapping gas. The idea is simple. Trees consume carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to grow. With lower amounts of CO2 in the air, less energy is trapped and temperatures decrease. However, reforestation may not be a wise strategy in the Southwest, and many questions still remain. Forest ecologists at the Northern Arizona University (NAU) say that allowing forests to grow unchecked in the arid Southwest can create enormous tinder boxes. If a forest ignites, most of the carbon stored in the wood and roots is released back into the atmosphere and forms CO2, negating any temperature-reducing benefit of storing the CO2 in the trees. The amount of CO2 released by a fire, however, may be different for small and large conflagrations. Researchers from NAU hope to answer this question, which will aid in forest management decisions. | This month's cover photo
Clouds shade part of the craggy cliffs on the eastern side of the Dragoon Mountains in southern Arizona. |
Source: Zack Guido, CLIMAS. October 18, 2009.
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