A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

El Niño–Southern Oscillation: the causes, impacts in the Southwest, and future
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Streamflow returns this month. See Figure 12 for more information.

Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2010

Date issued: January 28, 2010

C. Forecasts

Temperature

NOAA–CPC long-lead forecasts call for equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average temperatures through Arizona and western New Mexico into April, with increased chances of above-average temperatures later in the spring.

Figure 9. Temperature Outlook

Precipitation

Climate forecasts suggest above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest through May, due primarily to the moderate to strong El Niño currently underway.

Figure 10. Precipitation Outlook

Drought

The Southwest is expected to experience some improvement in drought conditions, largely due to the El Niño conditions that have been influencing the region.

Figure 11. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Streamflow

The first spring–summer streamflow forecast for the Southwest issued on January 1 shows near- to above-average flows for basins in the Mogollon Rim region of Arizona, below-average flows for most of the Upper Colorado River Basin, and a wide range of flows for New Mexico rivers.

Figure 12. Streamflow Forecast

ENSO

El Niño conditions remained at moderate levels this past month with sea surface temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the winter and into early spring.

Figure 13. El Niño Status and Forecasts