A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

2009 Water year in review
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Long-lead precipitation outlooks through April indicate increasing chances for above-average precipitation along the southern tier of the US. See Figure 9 for more information.

Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - October 2009

Date issued: October 20, 2009

C. Forecasts

Temperature

NOAA–CPC long-lead forecasts call for slightly increased chance of above-average temperatures through most of the Southwest throughout fall and into winter.

Figure 8. Temperature Outlook

Precipitation

Climate forecasts suggest equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico through 2009 and into early 2010, with a slightly increased chance of wetter conditions throughout the southern portion of the region into spring.

Figure 9. Precipitation Outlook

Drought

The latest seasonal drought outlook from NOAA–CPC indicates drought conditions are expected to improve, at least slightly, throughout much of the West over the next three months.

Figure 10. Seasonal Drought Outlook

ENSO

Weak to possibly moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the fall and early winter seasons, bringing increased chances for above-average precipitation across southern Arizona and New Mexico.

Figure 11. El Niño Status and Forecasts