A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

The 2009 southwest monsoon: El Niño’s heavy hand
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Snowpack returns this month. See Figure 8 for more details.

Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2009

Date issued: November 23, 2009

B. Recent Conditions

Temperature

For most of Arizona, temperatures have been 0–4 degrees F above average in the past 30 days. In New Mexico about half the state has experienced temperatures 0–2 degrees F above average while the other half has felt temperatures 0–2 degrees below average.

Figure 1. Recent Temperature Conditions

Precipitation

In the past 30 days only two storms have brought significant precipitation to the Southwest, predominantly benefitting eastern New Mexico. All of Arizona has received below-average precipitation in the past 30 days, and most of the state has experienced less than 25 percent of average precipitation.

Figure 2. Recent Precipitation Conditions

Drought

Current drought in the Southwest is a tale of two states. In Arizona, the entire state is classified as experiencing abnormally dry conditions or worse while in New Mexico only 29 percent of the state is abnormally dry or worse.

Figure 3. U.S. Drought Monitor

Figure 4. Arizona Drought Status

Figure 5. New Mexico Drought Status

Water Supply

All of the Arizona reservoirs reported in the Southwest Climate Outlook declined during October, with a combined reservoir storage decline of almost 350,000 acre-feet. The total reservoir storage in New Mexico declined by about 59,000 acre-feet. As of November 18, the early-season snowpack in Arizona and New Mexico predominantly contains less-than-average snow water equivalent.

Figure 6. Arizona Reservoir Levels

Figure 7. New Mexico Reservoir Level

Figure 8. Southwest Snowpack