Note: These PDF files require Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded from the Adobe website. If you need these documents in an alternate format, please email climas@email.arizona.edu.

Forecasts and Outlooks:
Southwest Climate Outlook

Feature Articles

The following articles are published as part of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook (formerly the END InSight Initiative). Each month the outlook provides the latest drought and climate information, along with feature articles on a range of topics. The archive of feature articles below is organized by publication date.

Diagnosing 2007 U.S. precipitation extremes (PDF, 200KB)
NOAA Climate Scenes Investigators recently focused on the causes of below-average precipitation in 2007 in the southwestern and southeastern United States to determine if those conditions can be attributed to sea surface temperature anomalies.

A shift toward aridity (PDF, 921 KB)
CLIMAS hosted a small, informal roundtable with several climate scientists. The discussion focused on how a poleward shift in the westerly winds over the northern hemisphere may influence the climate of the Southwest. This article is based on the roundtable discussion.

New streamflow forecasts for expert users (PDF, 721 KB)
The National Weather Service has combined a number of forecast tools into a powerful new collection of web-based, site-specific maps and graphs that provide expert forecast users with a much greater depth of information about streamflow than ever before.

Forecast Verification: Past, Present, and Future (PDF, 194 KB)
This article discusses some of the many different forecast verification methods, the concept of forecast value to users, and offers some suggestions for forecast users when considering any forecast.

Roundtable discussion on La Niña episode (PDF, 145 KB)
On November 6, CLIMAS sought the expertise of scientists who discussed the current La Niña event and its potential fate and impacts in the West and Southwest.

2007 SWCO water year in review (PDF, 700 KB)
The 2007 Water Year in Review offers a summary of the information presented in each month’s outlook during the 2007 water year. This review provides an overview of precipitation, temperature, reservoir and streamflow levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño conditions.

Cooling systems affect resources, climate, and health (PDF, 237 KB)
In the Southwest, energy is increasingly going toward air-conditioning rather than the traditional evaporative coolers, known as swamp coolers. The shift has implications for energy use, water use, and climate.

Fall conference roundup (PDF, 216KB)
This is a collection of conferences, workshops, talks, and symposia that touch on issues of key importance to readership in the Southwest.

New divisions for monitoring and predicting climate (PDF, 283KB)
An adaptation of an article by Klaus Wolter and Dave Allured, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, and NOAA-ESRL Physical Sciences Division. It originally appeared in the June 2007 issue of the Intermountain West Climate Summary.

Arizona drought coming back into focus (PDF, 131KB)
Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano declared a continued drought emergency for Arizona on May 22, 2007, extending an executive order that has been in place since annual rainfall totals plunged sharply nine years ago.

How tree rings can help reconstruct streamflow (PDF, 212KB)
This article reports on a series of recent technical workshops for water manager and stakeholders. It is acompanied by a smaller article about the top seven things western water managers should know about tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow.

Global warming in the Southwest: An overview (PDF, 185KB)
This article is the introductory text from Global Warming in the Southwest: Projections, Observations, and Impacts (PDF, 2.88MB), a compilation of Southwest Climate Outlook articles that explore different impacts the region is experiencing due to rising temperatures.

Global warming determined to be "unequivocal" (PDF, 261KB)
Jonathan Overpeck, a CLIMAS researcher, was among the world’s leading scientists to issue a recent climate change report that asserted for the first time that global warming is “very likely” driven by human activity.

Everybody counts when reining in global warming (PDF, 211KB)
There are many ways individuals and businesses can reduce their impacts on climate—purchasing carbon offsets, planting trees, driving less, adjusting the thermostat, and more.

Global warming inspires a look at solar, wind energy (PDF, 188KB)
In the Southwest, many initiatives are being developed to improve energy efficiency and boost alternative forms of power, such as solar and wind energy.

Global warming could affect groundwater recharge (PDF, 169KB)
Groundwater reservoirs remain mysteriously out of sight, making fluctuations of these important sources of southwestern water difficult to measure. It’s even more challenging to project how they might fare as climate changes with the ongoing global warming.

2006 SWCO water year in review (PDF, 965KB)
This month's feature article is a synthesis of the information presented in each month’s outlook during the 2006 water year including an overview of precipitation, temperature, reservoir levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño conditions. Each of these topics is described with textual descriptions and figures.

Population growth, warming, and water supply (PDF, 272 KB)
Expanding cities and warming climate merge dramatically in the Southwest to boost water demand. The combined effect of rising population, temperature and water use, meanwhile, threatens to take a toll on quality of life.

NWS new local three-month temperature outlook and East Pacific hurricanes bring rain to Southwest (PDF, 734 KB)
The first article highlights a new climate product released by NOAA's National Weather Service and the second discusses how storms in the Pacific can have a profound influence on the Southwest.

Monsoon impact on society: the good and the bad (PDF, 154 KB)
In a land marked by dry heat, people welcome the summer rains with songs, sales, and special events celebrating the monsoon season. For better or worse, the monsoon brings changes to the Southwest and provides a break in soaring summer temperatures.

Hurricane intensity rises with sea surface temps (PDF, 170 KB)
High sea surface temperatures fuel stronger hurricanes. No one argued about that at a recent workshop on tropical cyclones and climate change held at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction in New York. The distinguished experts at the March workshop even agreed that Atlantic hurricane seasons are likely to remain active for at least several decades to come.

Southwest drought can pack a hefty punch and Putting the AZ drought plan into action (PDF, 239 KB)
Two articles exploring different aspects of Southwest drought originally published on the ISPE News website.

Rising temperatures bump up risk of wildfires (PDF, 316 KB)
Climbing temperatures are expected to bring more raging infernos, in desert, grasslands, and forests alike—and the homes constructed among them in upcoming fire seasons.

Experts discuss early start to Southwest fire season (PDF, 285 KB)
The Southwest’s fire season started in February, a month earlier than usual. CLIMAS invited several people with expertise in fire management, behavior, and history to share some of their insight during a March 1 roundtable discussion.

Grassland dynamics shift with climate fluctuations (PDF, 159 KB)
As the drought deepened, ranchers and others at a January workshop brainstormed ways to keep southwestern grasslands resilient despite rising temperatures and pendulum-like swings in rainfall.

El Niño: a wild card for climate change impacts (PDF, 290 KB)
In the desert,there is a gamble that we all take: Will the rains that have sustained us in modern times continue to replenish our water supplies? Will global warming deal us a losing hand, with the coming decades bringing us more dry wells and shrinking lakes? Place your bets.

How to use the climate Forecast Evaluation Tool (PDF, 578 KB)
This article serves as a set of easy instructions designed to guide you through the process of using the web-based Forecast Evaluation Tool for the first time to check the performance of the Climate Prediction Center climate forecasts you consider most relevant.

2005 SWCO Water Year In Review (PDF, 860 KB)
This month's feature article is a synthesis of the information presented in each month’s outlook during the 2005 water year including an overview of precipitation, temperature, reservoir levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño conditions. Each of these topics is described with textual descriptions and figures.

Nature's clock chiming in earlier springs (PDF, 181 KB)
Plant and animal lifecycles show earlier and longer warm-weather seasons, a leap that many view as a response to global warming.

Water, energy, and climate linked in complex ways (PDF, 175 KB)
Interconnections between water, energy, and climate fueled discussions at an Arizona Water Summit in Flagstaff in early August 2005 that attracted educators, tribal members, commercial interests, and policy makers, including the governor.

Inquiry into monsoon and global warming continues (PDF, 247 KB)
This is part two in a two-part series about how the monsoon might change with global warming. This article focuses on some of the atmospheric influences on the North American monsoon.

Monoon could strengthen as climate warms (PDF, 168 KB)
This is the first in a two-part series about how the monsoon might change with global warming. This article focuses on some of the broad-scale factors that could influence monsoonal strength while next month’s article will consider atmospheric influences on the North American monsoon.

Tree-ring records inform water management decisions (PDF,173 KB)
A May workshop in Tucson brought together water managers and scientists to discuss how looking at the past may help inform future water planning efforts.

Will April rains bring May flames? (PDF, 1 MB)
Lush grasses and other ground cover are a cause for concern in the Southwest during this 2005 fire season. Fire managers are worried that big fires will spread once the grasses dry out.

Will the drought continue? (PDF, 261 KB)
A series of fortunate events has pulled drought-busting precipitation into the Southwest since about fall. Still, climatologists warned this doesn’t mean the region has moved out of the danger zone for long-term drought.

Is global warming creeping into Southwest forests? (PDF, 294 KB)
A Sedona workshop in mid-February drew forest managers and scientists together for an exchange of views on climate variability and change.

Biologists bring water to species hurt by drought (PDF, 613 KB)
Sonoran Pronghorn may be helped by forage enhancement techniques in their wild habitats.

The future Colorado River: Will it deliver? (PDF, 161 KB)
Climate change could further humble the Colorado River with rising temperaturs. This will put stress on both supply and demand of river water.

Low Flow in the Colorado River Basin (PDF, 132 KB)
About half of the water savings usually stored in the Colorado River Basin have been spent during the past five years of drought, spurring water managers in the seven states that depend on the Colorado to seriously discuss how they might share a potential shortage.

Plan to thin trees in Apache-Sitgreaves and Salt cedar (PDF, 409 KB)
This month there are two articles entitled, "Plan to thin trees in Apache-Sitgreaves forest could increase streamflow in short term" and "Salt Cedar: Villian or Scapegoat when it comes to water use?" The first discusses that for a few years thinning trees will lead to increased runoff and the second discusses Salt cedar's water use reputation.

Climate experts discuss Southwest drought (PDF, 207 KB)
Despite a developing El Niño, which typically indicates a wet winter, a group of climate experts with backgrounds in geosciences, earth and planetary science, tree-ring research, and meteorology discuss that the intense drought gripping the Southwest will not likely be alleviated.

Forecasters expect below-normal East Pacific hurricane activity (PDF, 222 KB)
Here in the West, we may be land-locked, but we’re not immune to the effects of hurricanes. A growing awareness of the importance of hurricanes and tropical storms for potential rainfall in the Southwest and Mexico when they do turn landward helped inspire researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to release an experimental East Pacific Hurricane Outlook this year and last year.

Monsoon forecasting could improve following study (PDF, 824 KB)
A host of scientists from 30 different institutions in the United States, Mexico, and Central America are hoping to improve future forecasts by intensively monitoring the monsoon’s physical features as part of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). One NAME forecaster shares his experiences in a second short article.

Arizona to release drought plan for public comment (PDF, 401 KB)
The Governor’s Drought Task Force, established about a year ago to develop a management plan for drought-stressed Arizona, will be releasing its plan for public comment in July. [June 2004]

Beetles devastate forests in response to drought (PDF, 289K)
If termites were devouring homes at the rate that beetles are killing southwestern trees, cities the size of Phoenix and Albuquerque would be crumbling under the attack. A variety of bugs, mostly bark beetle species, are converting large tracts of southwestern forests from evergreen into ominous red. [May 2004]

Southwest faces high fire risk despite recent rains (PDF, 120K)
Although recent rains have effectively delayed the start of the fire season in parts of Arizona, fire experts predict the entrenched drought will push southwestern forests to “critical” levels in a condensed fire season in May and June. [April 2004)

The Arizona Meteorological Network: A Brief Overview (PDF, 317K)
For more than 17 years, the Arizona Meteorological Network (AZMET) has provided outreach and information to virtually anyone in the state who grows plants or uses water. Stakeholders include irrigation districts, managers of turf facilities and golf courses, cotton growers, fertilizer and pesticide companies, citrus growers, vegetable producers and other agribusiness organizations in southern and central Arizona. [March 2004]

Ranchers split on supporting grazing permit buyout (PDF, 110K)
With drought withering the landscape and government regulations increasingly cutting into profits, some ranchers are supporting a plan that would allow a one-time buyout of cattle-grazing permits on federal lands. [February 2004]

Scientists look to ocean for clues about drought (PDF, 118K)
The landlocked Southwest does not escape the ocean’s reach. Although scientists continue to untangle how sea changes affect southwestern climate, what they’ve learned so far is chilling. Both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans appear aligned to favor longterm drought in the Southwest. [January 2004]

Southwestern drought regimes might worsen with climate change (PDF, 920K)
Will long-term drought in the Southwest be the rule or the exception as the global climate warms? There are indications that drought and other extreme events will become more common in a warming world—even if precipitation in the Southwest actually increases. [December 2003]

Winter rains could bring drought relief (PDF, 408K)
A round of normal winter rain and snow could be enough to pull Arizona out of drought, at least in the short term. This article explores the odds of this happening and some of the climate patterns that affect precipitation in the Southwest. [November 2003]

The Many Dimensions of Drought (PDF, 80K)
The queston on everyone's mind is "When will the the drought end?" The answers can vary greatly depending on which definition of drought one uses. This article explores several indices and indicators used to define drought. [June 2003]

Arizona Begins Drought Planning Process (PDF, 122K)
The END InSight project will be working with the newly formed Drought Task Force to develop a drought plan for Arizona. [June 2003]

Drought Update: Where do We Stand? (PDF, 96K)
While drought conditions have improved from last year, dry conditions are likely to persist—particulary in light of a developing La Niña event. [June 2003]

Water Management in Dry Times, Dry Places (PDF, 543K)
Cities, towns, and rural areas are responding to drought in different ways. This article describes the historic basis of water allocation in the Southwest and the future of water-use planning in Arizona and New Mexico. In addition, it considers how urban and rural areas might cope with a combination of long-term drought and continued population growth. [May 2003]

Climate, Forest Management Stoke Western Wildfires (PDF, 114K)
Blame it on the drought? Not so fast. Find out more about the contributing factors to the large wildfires of 2002 and how agencies and researchers are working together to effectively manage our forest resources. [April 2003]

Economic Impacts of Drought (PDF, 353K)
The economic impacts of drought may not be immediately visible but may have lasting effects on communities and policies. This article examines the economic impacts of historical droughts, as well as the effect current drought has had on the ranching and forestry in the Southwest. [March 2003]

Early Spring (PDF, 84K)
As global temperatures rise, the growing season in the western United States may be lengthening. This article examines data showing that spring may be coming earlier to the Southwest and the possible effects on plants, animals, and water supplies. [February 2003]

Dry Winter (PDF, 274K)
If El Niño has arrived, why has this winter been so dry for the Southwest? This article explores two other climate patterns that have been keeping the rains away. [February 2003]

Groundwater Resources and Climate Variability (PDF, 92K)
What is the impact of drought on groundwater supplies? Find out more about groundwater monitoring and our reliance on these valuable resources in the Southwest. [January 2003]

Population Growth and Groundwater (PDF, 158K)
As population numbers in the Southwest continue to soar, will there be enough water to go around? This article reports on research examining the water budgets of five Arizona cities under drought conditions of varying degrees to identify how much groundwater mining would be required to meet the needs of expanding populations. [January 2003]

Predicting El Niño (PDF, 458K)
Climatologists combine a number of sophisticated tools, including computer modeling and statistics, to forecast the when, where, and how much of El Niño-related climate events. [December 2002]

Dreaming of a white Christmas? (PDF, 525K)
What are the odds your holidays will be merry and white? Find out the statistics of snowfall for December and January around the Southwest. [December 2002]

Snowpack in the Southwest (PDF, 476K)
Despite the fact that large areas of our region never, or only very rarely, see the white stuff, snow plays a vital role in the hydrology,ecology,and water supplies of the Southwest. [November 2002]

Climate Divisions (PDF, 502K)
Many forecasting products are based on climate divisions. This article examines why these divisions are used and the pros and cons of their use for different applications. [November 2002]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (PDF, 101K)
What do scientists know (and not know) about the PDO? This article explains the basics of this large-scale climate pattern, while exploring its relationship with ENSO and its impacts on the Southwest. [October 2002]

Floods (PDF, 222K)
This article explores the nature of flooding in the Southwestern United States, with information on flash floods, fire and erosion, the effects of El Niño on flooding, and past flood events. [September 2002]

Winter Forecast Models (PDF, 499K)
Will El Niño bring us more rain this winter or will the Southwest continue to be dry? This article uses both El Niño forecasts and sea surface temperature models to explore the possibilities. [September 2002]

Monsoon (PDF, 56K)
Will the monsoon bring enough rain to end the drought? This article gives an overview of the monsoon in the Southwest and explores how forecasters predict the strength of a monsoon. [August 2002]

Tropical Storms (PDF, 56K)
Some of the most severe weather-related events in the Southwest are caused by tropical storms. This article gives historical information on the effects of these storms in Arizona and New Mexico and explores what we might expect this year. [August 2002]

Drought (PDF, 84K)
You know it's been dry, but how is drought actually defined? This article gives an overview of drought and its impacts in the Southwest, as well as discussing whether the coming monsoon or El Niño will provide relief. [July 2002]

El Niño (PDF, 35K)
This article explains what El Niño is and explores the variable nature of this phenomenon. [July 2002]