| Home | About CLIMAS | People | Forecasts | Research & Products | Learn About SW Climate | Publications | Calendar | Links |
In this Section:
 |
A. Summary |
|
|
|
C. Forecasts |
|
D. Forecast Verification |
What do we do now? Important climate change issues vocalized by resource managers
(PDF, 199 KB)
More Information:
|
Most Recent Summary |
|
Subscribe |
|
Glossary |
|
|
|
Related Links |
|
Disclaimer |
Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute of the Environment.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - September 2009
Date issued: September 22, 2009
A. Summary
The September 22, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [September 2009 PDF, 2.65 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– Last month was the fourth driest August in Arizona in the last 116 years. On September 15, 90 percent of the state was classified as abnormally or moderately dry. In New Mexico, 45 percent of the state was abnormally dry or worse.
Temperature– The dry monsoon has provided no relief to the extremely warm conditions across the Southwest.
Precipitation– Recent monsoon activity in western New Mexico and central and eastern Arizona brought flash floods but no drought relief.
ENSO– An ENSO Advisory declared by the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center remains in effect this month. Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the fall and early winter.
Climate Forecasts– Temperature forecasts call for increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest throughout the remainder of 2009; precipitation forecasts state equal chances for above-, below-, or average precipitation.
The Bottom Line– Although Hurricane Jimena pushed moisture-laden air into the Southwest in early September, it was too little, too late. With the monsoon season officially wrapping up on Sept. 30, rainfall in most of Arizona and New Mexico has been below average. Scant precipitation caused drought conditions to expand, and some fear that if fall and winter precipitation is not at least average, drought impacts may become severe. Fortunately, El Niño conditions—which are forecast for fall and winter—typically bring above-average precipitation to the region.
| Timing Matters
With the relatively meager rainfall totals delivered to most of the Southwest this summer, many people, including ranchers, might not notice that the monsoon season is waning. But even if a tropical hurricane steered moisture to the region and drenched rangelands—a possibility over the next few months—it may be too little, too late. To have grass growth, the kind that fills the bellies of cows, the timing of rain is important. Summer grass growth is tied to temperature and precipitation. Grasses falter if sufficient rains do not accompany warm summer temperatures. Growth also is stunted when the monsoon rains are interrupted with long dry periods. Both of these scenarios played out in many parts of Arizona and New Mexico this summer. As a result, about 80 percent of Arizona rangelands were classified in poor or very poor conditions as of August 30. To make matters worse, the brown pastures have impacts beyond this year. In dry summers like this one, grasses don’t produce seeds and next year’s crop suffers, said Kim McReynolds, Cochise County Agricultural Extension Agent. “Many ranchers are selling cows,” McReynolds said. | This month's cover photo
An anvil shaped cloud smothers the Tucson Mountains on September 7. These rain clouds have been a rare occurrence this monsoon season, which is shaping up to be among the driest this decade. |
Source: Zack Guido, CLIMAS
| B. Recent Conditions > |