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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

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Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - September 2008

Date issued: September 25, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Drought conditions in both Arizona and New Mexico improved, largely the result of continued summer monsoon rains.

Temperature – Temperatures in the past month have been much cooler than average across eastern and southern New Mexico, while most of Arizona has been slightly warmer than average.

Precipitation – Southern areas in Arizona and New Mexico continue to have a wet monsoon season, with rainfall totals measuring as much as 300 percent above average. Northern areas remain relatively dry.

Monsoon – Many areas in southern Arizona and New Mexico received above- average precipitation in the last month. Phoenix has enjoyed almost twice the average amount of rainfall since the onset of the monsoon.

ENSO – ENSO-neutral conditions dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean again this month, but ocean warming has not disrupted the atmospheric circulation patters from the recent La Niña.

Climate Forecasts – The long-lead forecasts for late 2008 through early 2009 call for slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation and a slightly increased chance of above-average temperatures for many parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

The Bottom Line – The monsoon season is waning but the impact of a wetter-than-normal summer has improved drought conditions for many areas in Arizona and New Mexico. Currently, soil moisture conditions in most of New Mexico and southern Arizona are adequate for crop needs. Rain is still needed in sections of northern Arizona to alleviate drought conditions.

New UA Research As many of our readers know, the Southwest Climate Outlook provides current, pertinent, and reliable climate information to stakeholders. CLIMAS has been publishing the monthly report since the spring of 2002 to help educate stakeholders and improve communication between those who produce climate-related information and those who use it. After six years of publication, CLIMAS is evaluating the Outlook to ensure that it remains useful and applicable to you. To produce the best product that meets your needs, CLIMAS is conducting an online survey. Your participation will be vital to shaping future changes we make to the Outlook. The survey will take only about 10 minutes and will largely consist of multiple choice answers. All information will be kept confidential. The survey will be available on-line until October 31st. To take the survey, please visit: http://climas.biocom.arizona.edu/login.cfm

This month's cover photo CLIMAS is evaluating the Southwest Climate Outlook to ensure that it remains useful and applicable to you. CLIMAS is conducting an online survey. Your participation will be vital to shaping future changes we make to the Outlook. To take the survey, please visit: http://climas.biocom.arizona.edu/login.cfm