A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - September 2006

Date issued: September 27, 2006

A. Summary

Drought – The record monsoon rains have brought significant short-term drought relief to the Southwest, particularly in New Mexico. Longer-term relief will be dependent on adequate winter rain and snow.

• Drought conditions are expected to continue to improve in New Mexico and some improvement is likely in Arizona.
  
  
• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico were partly replenished by the abundant monsoon rains.

Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005 temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.

Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been well above average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive flooding in many areas in Arizona and New Mexico.

Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest during the upcoming winter.

El Niño – El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue into early 2007.

The Bottom Line – Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multi-year precipitation deficits.

Mosquitoes and Monsoon The monsoon season has done much to alleviate drought conditions in the Southwest, but it has also aided the mosquito populations here, increasing the risk of contracting West Nile virus. Mosquitoes need standing water for their eggs and larvae to mature, so the more rain during the monsoon, the more places that can breed mosquitoes. Ponds, puddles, stock tanks, clogged drain gutters, outdoor pots for plants, old tires, kid’s toys, and even empty boats in the yard make ideal places for the mosquito population to blossom rapidly. Years with relatively weak monsoons tend to produce fewer mosquitoes compared to years with strong monsoons like 2006. Since West Nile virus made its appearance in Arizona in 2003, more than 500 people have become infected. Most people develop no symptoms, or only mild flu-like symptoms, but the disease can be more serious especially to the elderly. Twenty people in Arizona have died of the disease, including two in 2006. For more information visit: http://www.azdhs.gov...

This month's cover photo Lake Powell is one of Arizona’s largest reservoirs and is essential to the state’s water supply. It is currently at less than 50 percent of capacity. This photo was taken last month and shows Lake Powell’s ”bathtub ring,” the line between the lighter colored rock and dark red rock is the high water mark. It was taken from the water on the western side of the reservoir between Navajo Generating Station and Natural Bridge National Monument. Source: Barbara Morehouse, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth