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Nature’s clock ringing in earlier springs (PDF, 181 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, Research Associate
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - September 2005
Date issued: September 20, 2005
A. Summary
Drought – Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought continue in southeastern and northeastern Arizona and western and central New Mexico.
- Drought status has improved in portions of eastern Arizona and central New Mexico.
- Most reservoirs are above last year’s storage, but they remain below average.
Temperature – Average temperatures during the water year range from several degrees below average to several degrees above average. The past 30 days were mainly warmer than average.
Precipitation – Water year precipitation continues to show much variation with some locations reporting more than 130 percent of average, while other areas have received only 70–90 percent of average. Much of the Southwest was below 70 percent of average during the past 30 days.
Climate Forecasts – Models indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest through March 2006. Increased chances of drier-than-average conditions exist through February 2006 across most of the region.
El Niño – Output from probabilistic forecast models shows that neutral conditions are most likely to continue through August 2006.
The Bottom Line – Drought should persist along the Arizona-New Mexico border, and wildland fire potential is above average in some areas as the Southwest enters the typically dry fall season.
Hurricanes in the Southwest While the Southwest is not associated with the destruction caused by major hurricanes like Katrina, it is important to note that numerous tropical storms form in the eastern North Pacific Ocean each year. Most of these storms move westward over open water, but sometimes tropical storms track toward the southwestern United States. The official East Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook from the NOAA-CPC calls for increased chances of below-average tropical storm activity during the 2005 season, which lasts from May 15–November 30. A “seesaw effect” is typically observed between the East Pacific and North Atlantic hurricane activity. The factors that lead to increased activity in one region will stifle activity in the other region. |
