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E. Focus on El Niño Signal in the Upper Colorado River Basin |
Climate experts discuss Southwest drought (PDF, 207 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - September 2004
Date issued: September 21, 2004
A. Summary
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Agricultural drought status has been added to some portions of Arizona and New Mexico.
• Far eastern New Mexico remains free of all drought categories.
• Storage in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico continues to decrease.
Precipitation – Precipitation for the water year is below average for most of Arizona and New Mexico. Monsoonal rains have been rare since mid-August. Precipitation from the remnants of Hurricane Javier did help the Southwest, but the climate products capturing this event will appear in next month’s outlook.
Temperature – The Southwest was generally cooler than average over the past 30 days.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for much of Arizona through March. Increased chances of cooler-than-average conditions are predicted for eastern New Mexico through January. There are no predicted anomalies in precipitation until the December–February period.
El Niño – A weak El Niño is in progress, and it is expected to strengthen slightly in the next several months. Effects of this event may not be seen until late winter or early spring.
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in Arizona through December, while New Mexico may see limited improvement.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects that an El Niño will develop in the next three months, based on current tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The impact that this event will have in the Southwest is yet to be determined. A more southerly track of storms during El Niño conditions can tap into tropical moisture in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which tends to result in wetter-than-average winters for the Southwest. A wet winter may improve, but not completely alleviate, dry conditions in the region. For detailed discussions of El Niño’s effect on the Southwest check out the this month’s feature article and focus on “El Niño Signal in the Upper Colorado River Basin .” |
Developing El Niño