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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - September 2002
Date issued: September 27, 2002
A. Summary
Recent rains have provided the eastern two-thirds of our region with much needed short-term drought relief. Consequently, water restrictions have been reduced for some Arizona municipalities and fire danger has been reduced to the point where prescribed fires have been reintroduced in our region. Agriculture and range conditions improved slightly, but topsoil and range conditions remain poor to very poor over a majority of Arizona and New Mexico. Temperatures have continued to be above average for the southern half of our region.Our water supply, including streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and lake levels, continues to be affected by persistent drought. Thus, water supply-related issues have been in the headlines in New Mexico and will continue to be of concern in our region until we receive substantial winter precipitation.
Climate outlooks for October-December indicate uncertainty with regard to both temperature and precipitation. Long-term climate outlooks indicate increased probabilities of above-average precipitation for our region this winter. For our region, there is only a small probability of significant drought amelioration or termination by the end of the year. Most Arizona and New Mexico climate divisions will require 150-200% of normal precipitation to end the drought entirely during the next 6 months.
El Niņo conditions strengthened during the past month, and atmospheric indicators, such as weakening easterly ("trade") winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, have developed. The El Niņo event is expected to persist through the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. Based on instrumental records, the majority of El Niņo events have brought greater than average precipitation to Arizona and New Mexico; thus, forecasts show a slight increase in the likelihood of above-average precipitation by the turn of the year. However, Southwest winter precipitation during El Niņo years is highly variable. Research on interactions between the equatorial and north Pacific Ocean indicates little confidence in winter precipitation much above average for our region.