A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

2008 Water Year in Review (PDF, 2.9 MB)

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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Joe Abraham, CLIMAS Project Manager
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - October 2008

Date issued: October 23, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Summer monsoon thunderstorm activity through late August helped improve short-term drought conditions across much of southern Arizona.

Temperature – The new water year has begun with temperatures 2–4 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average across all of Arizona and western New Mexico.

Precipitation – The beginning of New Mexico’s water year has been very wet, while Arizona’s has been very dry.

ENSO – ENSO-neutral conditions are once again the dominant pattern across the Pacific basin; the probability continues to increase of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through this fall and into the winter.

Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts call for equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures in most of the region west of the Rockies throughout the remainder of 2008 and into early 2009. Precipitation forecasts call for slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation for the same period.

The Bottom Line – New Mexico’s soil moisture is favorable for crops, due in part to recent wet conditions, while dry conditions in Arizona have made soils extremely dry. With respect to water storage, Lakes Powell and Mead declined by 236,000 acre-feet during September 2008. Although the combined levels fell in the last month, they are significantly higher than they were one year ago. Reservoir storage in New Mexico also slightly declined in September.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storms Hurricane Norbert veered east in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on October 11 and sliced through central Baja California Peninsula, destroying thousands of homes and sending a surge of moist air northeastward into Arizona. This year, Norbert is not the only storm to batter towns and impact southwestern weather. Since the onset of the tropical hurricane season on May 15, Tropical Storm Julio on August 30, and Tropical Storm Lowell on September 6, also pushed moist air into the Southwest.Although Norbert, Julio, and Lowell dissipated over land before reaching the U.S. Southwest, decaying tropical storms pass over the region about once in every five years, according to the National Weather Service. The evolution of the 2008 tropical storm season largely has mirrored predictions by experts. In mid-May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that the Eastern Pacific would experience 11 to 16 named storms and five to eight hurricanes. By October 16, 15 storms had been named and seven of them had become hurricanes. The hurricane season will end on November 30.

This month's cover photo Source: Zack Guido Altocumulus clouds in a mackerel pattern, which forebode rain, over Baboquivari Peak Wilderness in southern Arizona. This photo was taken in February 2008.