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D. Forecast Verification |
2006 SWCO water year in review (PDF, 965 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - October 2006
Date issued: October 24, 2006
A. Summary
The October 24, 2006 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [October 2006 PDF, 2.74 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Drought conditions have continued to improve in the Southwest, and New Mexico is nearly drought free. Longer-term relief for the Southwest will depend on adequate winter rain and snow.
- Drought conditions are expected to continue to improve in Arizona over the next few months.
- Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico changed little since last month.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the water year precipitation has been above average across most of the Southwest, but below average in southwestern Arizona.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest during the upcoming winter.
El Niño – El Niño conditions have persisted this fall and are expected to continue into spring 2007.
The Bottom Line – Welcome drought relief has occurred due to abundant rains in the monsoon season and in the early fall, particularly in New Mexico, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multi-year precipitation deficits.
| Hatch chiles survive monsoon flooding
The monsoon rains went a long way in easing |
This month's cover photo
A flash flood in Alamogordo, New Mexico on June 22, 2006. According to the New Mexico Floodplain Managers Association, ”Late in the afternoon of June 22, 2006, a heavy thunderstorm struck at least the lower part of Marble Canyon, one of three major canyons on the west side of the Sacramento Mountains that created the alluvial fans upon which Alamogordo is built. The storm resulted in sudden, dangerous flooding in the southeastern part of the city.” Source: http://www.nmfma.org |
droughtconditions in the Southwest, but the wet weather brought flood disasters to the region, including the famous chile-producing area around Hatch, New Mexico, on the southern Rio Grande. Hatch chiles are known around the globe for their excellent quality, but it looked for a time that there might be a chile shortage due to flooding, something chile-lovers never want to see. Flooding was widespread around Hatch; some chili fields flooded, more than four hundred homes were damaged in the area, and hundreds of families were forced to evacuate, leading to an acute labor shortage in the fields. All this caused concern that the chile crop might fail because of the combination of flood damage and not enough workers to harvest them. Fortunately, fewer fields were flooded than had been feared initially, and enough workers were able to return to save the harvest. The latest word is that the chile crop is safe and the chile trucks will roll.
| B. Recent Conditions > |