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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - October 2004
Date issued: October 26, 2004
A. Summary
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Short-term drought status has decreased in southeastern and west-central New Mexico and north-central Arizona.
• Far eastern New Mexico remains free of all drought categories.
• Storage in many reservoirs in the Southwest continues to decrease.
Precipitation – Eastern New Mexico and the western third of Arizona have experienced much wetter-than-average conditions at the beginning of the new water year, while precipitation in central and southern Arizona and along the states’ border is below average.
Temperature – Over the last 30 days, most of the Southwest has experienced somewhat cooler-than-average temperatures, with much cooler-than-average conditions in eastern New Mexico and warmer-than-average conditions around Lake Mead.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures for Arizona and western New Mexico through April. Precipitation forecasts call for increased chances of wetter-than-average conditions in late winter and early spring.
El Niño – A weak El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Experts believe that the strongest effects may not occur in the Southwest until late winter or early spring.
The Bottom Line – Short-term drought status is expected to improve in the Southwest through January.
Monsoon Season Summary
The monsoon provided little relief from the dry conditions that have dominated the Southwest, except in eastern New Mexico, the only portion of the region that has been removed from drought classification. The above-average precipitation received there has helped increase the state-wide averaged precipitation to a rank of 25th wettest year. In Tucson, the monsoon officially lasted from July 8–September 30. Tucson received a mere 2.43 inches of rain, which is 3.63 inches below average. This total ranks as the driest monsoon since 1989 and the 4th driest since records have been kept. |
