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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - October 2003
Date issued: October 27, 2003
A. Summary
Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest. Most New Mexico river basins remain in emergency drought status, and reservoir storage in virtually all New Mexico basins has declined during the past month. Net reservoir storage in the major Colorado River reservoirs declined during the past month.
Significant early October rainfall brought locally heavy rainfall to southern Arizona, Gila County Arizona, and the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Some areas have experienced short-term drought recovery. In spite of this rainfall, drought conditions have not improved over most of New Mexico, and have deteriorated in southwestern New Mexico. Based on historical records, most of New Mexico will require on the order of 200-300% of average precipitation to end the drought during the next three months.
Temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico have been well above average during the past month.
New Mexico continues to exhibit poor range and pasture conditions (relative to state averages). Almost 80% of New Mexico pasture and rangeland is in poor to very-poor condition.
Seasonal forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the winter months. November 2003-January 2004 precipitation forecasts indicate very slightly increased probabilities of below-average precipitation across Arizona.
Due to neutral ENSO conditions, seasonal climate forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty.
Fire danger is above normal for northwestern Arizona.
Bottom line: Hydrological drought is expected to continue in the Southwest through the early winter.
The most likely scenario is that long-term trends toward above-average temperatures will continue throughout the autumn and winter. There is no indication that the Southwest will receive significant precipitation during the next several months.
The worst case scenario is that reservoir levels continue to drop throughout New Mexico and on the Colorado River.
The best case scenario is that El Niño rebounds this fall and winter, and brings increased chances of above-average precipitation.