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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - October 2002
Date issued: October 23, 2002
A. Summary
Cooler conditions, especially in northern Arizona and New Mexico, have arrived with the onset of fall. Prescribed fires have been reintroduced in our region and are planned to continue through the spring. However, precipitation remains below average for all of the region, and extreme to moderate drought conditions persist. Northwestern Arizona is particularly dry and western Arizona still faces wildfire hazard. Meteorological drought conditions have eased over large parts of New Mexico, but not Arizona, which requires 4-11 inches of precipitation to end drought conditions.Our water supply, including streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and lake levels, continues to be affected by persistent drought. Thus, water supply-related issues have been in the headlines and will continue to be of concern in our region until we receive substantial winter precipitation.
Climate outlooks for November-January indicate uncertainty with regard to temperature; however, a slightly increased probability of above-average precipitation is indicated. Long-term climate outlooks indicate increased probabilities of above-average temperature and precipitation for our region in early 2003. Drought conditions are forecast to improve through January 2003, based on the expectations of El Niņo-related precipitation in the late fall and winter.
El Niņo conditions continued to strengthen during the past month, and atmospheric indicators, such as weakening easterly ("trade") winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, persisted. The moderate El Niņo event is expected to persist through the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. Based on instrumental records, the majority of El Niņo events have brought greater than average precipitation to Arizona and New Mexico; thus, forecasts show a slight increase in the likelihood of above-average precipitation by the turn of the year. However, Southwest winter precipitation during El Niņo years is highly variable. Research on interactions between the equatorial and northern Pacific Ocean indicates little confidence that winter precipitation will be much above average for our region.