A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

Powering the Southwest with solar and wind (PDF, 948 KB)

More Information:

	Most Recent Summary
	Subscribe
	Glossary
	Feature Article Archive
	Related Links
	Disclaimer

Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Joe Abraham, CLIMAS Project Manager
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2008

Date issued: November 25, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Short-term drought conditions remained virtually the same as one month ago, with the southern half of Arizona drought free and the northern half of the state abnormally dry. In New Mexico, short-term drought conditions worsened slightly from one month ago.

Temperature – Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, temperatures have been 1 to 4 degrees F above average across both states.

Precipitation – Most of New Mexico and Arizona have experienced extremely dry conditions since October 1 as a result of strong high pressure systems over the southwestern U.S. that have forced cold fronts to pass to the north.

ENSO – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation remained in a neutral phase once again this month, with near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Climate Forecasts – The long-lead precipitation forecasts show slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation for most of the southern half of the U.S. through March 2009. Long-lead temperature forecasts suggest that there are slightly higher chances of above-average temperatures through February 2009 in New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

The Bottom Line – Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, most of Arizona and New Mexico have been warm and dry. The dry conditions are due to strong high pressure systems over the southwestern U.S. that forced the cold fronts to move north. Storms forecasted to move over the Southwest during Thanksgiving week should help moisten the landscape.

Urban Weather and Climate The American Meteorological Society’s 89th annual meeting, Urban Weather and Climate: Now and the Future will be held at the Phoenix Civic Plaza Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona on January 11–15, 2009. Numerous specialty sessions, workshops, presentations, and field trips will focus on six cross-cutting urban and climate themes: measurement systems and networks; modeling and forecasting; observations and studies of high-impact weather; geographic influences on urban weather and climate; human and environmental impacts; and implications of climate change and population growth. A free, special session called WeatherFest will be open to the public on the first day of the conference. This four-hour fair is designed to excite an interest in math, meteorology, and science. WeatherFest will feature about 60 interactive science exhibits, including hands-on experiments, educational information, and career guides. This popular event typically draws more than 2,500 visitors. More info: http://www.ametsoc.org/MEET/annual/

This month's cover photo Source: GiGi Owen The Candelaria Wetland at the Candelaria Farm Preserve in Albuquerque, New Mexico in July 2008. This shallow wetland provides a habitat for waterfowl, shore birds, and wading birds and is managed by the City of Albuquerque.