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Roundtable discussion on La Niña episode (PDF, 145 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
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Sara O’Brian, ISPE Assistant Staff Scientist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2007
Date issued: November 21, 2007
A. Summary
The November 21, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [November 2007 PDF, 1.9 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Short-term drought conditions continued to improve slightly across Arizona due to some early fall precipitation while conditions across northeastern New Mexico have continued to worsen. The National Drought Monitor continues to show moderate to severe drought across much of Arizona. An expansion of abnormally dry conditions into New Mexico is due to below-average precipitation levels persisting over the past several months.
Temperature – Temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico have been above average for the past thirty days. Arizona has been especially warm, with temperatures ranging from 4 to 6 degrees F above average. New Mexico temperatures were generally 2 to 4 degrees F above average.
Precipitation – Both Arizona and New Mexico observed much below-average precipitation over the past thirty days. Most locations in Arizona and New Mexico saw less than 25 percent of average precipitation for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts paint the Southwest with an above-average temperature and below-average precipitation forecast through the fall and into the winter season. The current La Niña event is to blame for the below-average precipitation forecast and, in part, for the above-average temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – La Niña continues to be the big story this month with the prospect of below-average precipitation amounts plaguing the Southwest this upcoming winter. The fall dry spell has continued across Arizona and New Mexico over the past month and may continue into the winter with La Niña. This is prompting concerns of expanding and deepening drought conditions across both Arizona and New Mexico.
| 630-acre fire in Prescott National Forest
The most recent fire potential outlook for the Southwest, issued by the National Interagency Coordination Center, cautions that abundant dry grasses and other fine fuels, combined with more frequent-than-usual down-slope wind events, will keep fire potential above normal across the eastern plains of New Mexico into early winter. A new outlook will be issued on December 3. For more information visit the NICC website... | This month's cover photo
On October 30, a human-caused fire was started in the Prescott National Forest 10 miles south of Prescott, Arizona. This photo was taken on November 4 and shows an Airtanker dropping fire retardant.. Source: USDA Forest Service - Prescott National Forest |
The human-caused August Fire, which scorched 630 acres in the Prescott National Forest in early November, has revived concerns about fire potential—even this late in the year. Some measures of fire potential show low fuel moisture and high potential for fire spread, given an ignition, due to warm and dry winter conditions associated with the La Niña episode developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 
| B. Recent Conditions > |