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Global warming could affect groundwater recharge (PDF, 169 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Casey Thornbrugh, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2006
Date issued: November 21, 2006
A. Summary
The November 21, 2006 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [November 2006 PDF, 2.4 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – During this normally dry time of year in the Southwest, drought conditions have remained mostly unchanged since last month.
- In the short-term, most of Arizona is only abnormally dry and much of New Mexico is drought-free.
- Future drought conditions and long-term relief will depend mainly on winter snow and rain.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures have generally been near average.
Precipitation – Northern areas of Arizona and portions of western New Mexico have experienced above-average precipitation since the beginning of the water year due to a series of early October storms.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict equal chances of above-average, below-average, or average temperatures and increased chances of above-average precipitation through the upcoming winter and spring.
El Niño – Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across the equatorial Pacific with the current El Nino episode. Moderate El Nino conditions are expected to persist through the winter months into the spring.
The Bottom Line – A strong monsoon season and several October storms have contributed to cooler temperatures and an improvement in drought conditions in the Southwest. Future improvements will depend on winter precipitation, which is forecast to be above average through the winter due to current El Niño conditions.
New soil moisture product from UW The University of Washington Experimental For more info visit: http://www.hydro.washington.edu |
This month's cover photo
CLIMAS reasearch associate Melanie Lenart took this shot of a rainbow while traveling in New Mexico in October 2006. This double rainbow appeared shortly after a rainstorm. Source: Melanie Lenart |
Surface Water Monitor is a new online product that provides fine spatial scale soil moisture and snow water equivalent maps for the United States. As the Southwest lacks soil moisture and spatially-continuous snowpack estimates, this product helps provide physically-based estimates. The maps are created daily from the output of a sophisticated hydrologic model that is driven by real-time observations from approximately 2,130 stations across the country. The maps present the data in terms of percentiles (rankings) or in terms of the categories used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The product allows the user to see modeled soil moisture changes in one-day, one-week, two-week, and one-month increments, as well as fourteen-day animations for the western U.S. and Mexico. The website also includes an extensive archive of monthly maps going back to 1915. This product is experimental, so take a look and give the product developers your feedback!
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