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How to use the climate Forecast Evaluation Tool (PDF, 578 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Research Associate
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2005
Date issued: November 29, 2005
A. Summary
Drought – Moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions persist in southeastern and northeastern Arizona, and have expanded eastward to include most of New Mexico.
- Pasture and range land conditions continue to degrade in Arizona and improve slightly in New Mexico.
- Drought conditions are much improved from last year, but the large Colorado River reservoirs and Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico remain below average.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year, and over the last 30 days, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the water year, most of the Southwest has been drier than average.
Climate Forecasts – Models indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest through May of 2006, but there are no forecasted precipitation anomalies for the region.
El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to exist during the next six to nine months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist along some parts of the Arizona-New Mexico border. Hydrological drought continues to affect some large reservoir levels in the Southwest.
Testing climate forecasts
See this month’s feature article, “How to use the Forecast Evaluation Tool” to find out how to use this web-based tool to yield customized comparisons of climate forecasts relevant to your interests, location, and/or decision-making needs. |
Check the climate forecast or flip a coin—which is better? Well, it depends on where, when, and what you’d like to know.