Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - November 2003

Date issued: November 26, 2003

A. Summary

Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest. Most New Mexico river basins remain in emergency drought status.

An early November storm brought precipitation to parts of Arizona and New Mexico, including more than 10 inches of snowfall in parts of northern New Mexico. Some areas, such as parts of southern Arizona, have experienced short-term drought recovery. However, drought conditions have intensified southern New Mexico, in the vicinity of Santa Fe, and along the Arizona-Utah border.

Temperatures across most of Arizona and New Mexico have been above average during the past month, and well above average in southeastern New Mexico.

New Mexico continues to exhibit poor range and pasture conditions (relative to state averages). 83% of New Mexico pasture and rangeland is in poor to very-poor condition.

Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the winter and early spring months. December 2003-January 2004 precipitation forecasts are ambiguous; however, a consensus of forecasts indicates very slightly increased probabilities of below-average precipitation for western Arizona.

Due to neutral ENSO conditions, seasonal climate forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty.

Bottom line: Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest through the winter.

The most likely scenario is that above-average temperatures will continue throughout the winter and early spring. There is no indication that the Southwest will receive substantial precipitation during the next several months.

The worst case scenario is that neutral El Niño conditions do not bring even average precipitation to the Southwest. This would result in continued soil moisture and reservoir depletion by the beginning of summer 2004.

The best case scenario is that El Niño rebounds this winter and spring, and brings above-average precipitation. In Arizona, occasionally a weak-moderate El Niño brings well above-average precipitation…but this has not occurred often in the historical record.

B. Recent Conditions >