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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - November 2002
Date issued: November 27, 2002
A. Summary
Meteorological (short-term) drought conditions have eased over large parts of northern and eastern New Mexico, which received substantial precipitation during late October and into mid-November.Water year snowpack is greater than average for northern New Mexico and well ahead of last year's accumulations. However, Arizona and southwestern New Mexico snowpack is still below average.
Hydrological (long-term) drought is still a major concern for the Southwest. Most reservoirs continue to be at well below average levels. Water supply-related issues will continue to be of concern in our region unless we receive winter and spring precipitation that is considerably greater than average.
El Niņo conditions continued to strengthen during the past month, and El Niņo is predicted to continue into spring 2003. Climatologists expect this El Niņo to be weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niņo. This El Niņo is classified as moderate in strength.
Seasonal climate forecasts for winter indicate confidence in increased probabilities of above average precipitation across the southern half of Arizona and New Mexico.
Drought conditions are forecast to improve through February 2003, based on the expectations of El Niņo-related precipitation in the late fall and winter.
Decision makers should be aware that Southwest winter precipitation during El Niņo years is highly variable.