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A warming world interspersed with cooling periods (PDF, 344 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
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Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2009
Date issued: May 28, 2009
A. Summary
The May 28, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [May 2009 PDF, 3.08 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– All watersheds in Arizona are experiencing drought, with abnormally dry conditions present across northern and western parts of the state and moderate drought conditions across southeast Arizona. Drought conditions expanded in New Mexico, where 78 percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought.
Temperature– Arizona and New Mexico have been 2 to 8 degrees warmer than average during the last month, with some record-breaking temperatures.
Precipitation– In the 30 days prior to May 20, most of Arizona had received less than 5 percent of average precipitation. However, in the two days following May 20, significant precipitation fell in the Southwest.
ENSO– Sea surface temperatures warmed to near-average conditions across the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts suggest neutral conditions are 70 percent likely to continue through July, with an increasing chance of El Niño conditions developing by late summer.
Climate Forecasts– Forecasters believe that the monsoon will arrive early and deliver above-normal precipitation in the first half of the season, but the rains may taper off in the second half of the summer. Temperature forecasts for most of the West show a tilt in the odds toward warmer-than-normal temperatures.
The Bottom Line– Temperatures were 6 to 8 degrees F above average across the high country areas of Arizona and New Mexico in early May, which led to rapid melting of the remaining snowpack. In May, Phoenix had 14 consecutive days in which temperatures equaled or surpassed 100 degrees, setting a new record. Also, recent heavy precipitation in the Southwest between May 20 and 23 added much-needed rainfall to the driest time of year and helped reduce fire risk.
| Monsoon
The 2009 monsoon in the Southwest is forecast to be early and wet. During a Web briefing Thursday, May 21, scientists from The University of Arizona; the National Weather Service (NWS); Servicio Nacional Meteorológico, Mexico’s national weather service; and the National Center for Atmospheric Research emphasized the forecast applies to June and July but becomes more uncertain for August into September. “The large-scale signal suggests the monsoon will arrive early and will be wet and strong,” said Chris Castro, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the UA. The days leading up to the rains, he said, are likely to be very hot and dry. However, recent rainfall during the third week of May was not caused by the monsoon. The NWS forecasts a 33 to 45 percent chance of above-average rainfall in June, but the forecast becomes increasingly uncertain later in the summer, said Erik Pytlak, a NWS meteorologist in Tucson. One reason is that forecasts indicate a rapid development of an El Niño event this summer into fall, which can weaken the easterly winds characteristic of the monsoon and bring drier weather to the Southwest. The Web briefing can be viewed online at: http://breeze.ltc.arizona.edu/p42239161/. | This month's cover photo
Satellite photograph of a sandstorm emanating from Navajo Nation on April 3. Dust from the Colorado Plateau region is contributing to earlier snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains. The West was poised for a bad dust season this year when snow and rainfall all but stopped in the Colorado Plateau region in January—soils dampened by precipitation are not as easily transported by wind as dry soils, according to researchers. |
Source: NOAA
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