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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

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Deborah Bathke, New Mexico State Climatologist
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Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2008

Date issued: May 20, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Short-term drought conditions remain normal for much of Arizona. However, in the southeast, conditions remain abnormally dry and conditions in the central section of Cochise County have degraded to moderate drought levels. Most of New Mexico continues to experience elevated drought conditions.

Temperature – this month Arizona and New Mexico temperatures generally hovered within 2 degree F of average. In Arizona, the southeast region has experienced temperatures slightly above average, while the northeastern section has seen below-average temperatures. In New Mexico, the higher elevations in the Northwest have experienced lower temperatures; the eastern half has seen slightly higher temperatures.

Precipitation – For the past thirty days, virtually all of Arizona and New Mexico have received below-average precipitation. Precipitation for large swaths of area in Arizona and western New Mexico has been less than 5 percent of average. The San Francisco Peaks area in Arizona is one of only a few locations that received more than the average precipitation. The low precipitation during the last thirty days does little to change the drought status due to abundant winter precipitation in parts of the state.

Climate forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts suggest an enhanced probability that Arizona and New Mexico will experience above-average temperatures through the summer and fall. The forecast for precipitation is more ambiguous, with equal chances that the Southwest will experience above- or below-average precipitation.

The Bottom Line – Typical La Niña conditions were reflected in Arizona and New Mexico last month when the region saw far below-average precipitation. Although forecasts call for an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-average precipitation for the ensuing months in the Southwest, models suggest temperatures will be above average. With hotter temperatures and abundant dry fuels, expect a higher potential for fires.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and La Niña The NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena announced in late April that the La Niña that has persisted through most of the last year has begun to weaken, but that the longer-duration Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has shifted into its negative, or cooler, phase. The PDO is a long-term El Niño-like pattern of North Pacific climate variability. Unlike the El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern, the PDO phases tend to persist for twenty to thirty years. The negative (cool) phase tends to enhance La Niña and dampen El Niño conditions. For the Southwest, the cool phase of the PDO confirmed by JPL may mean drier-than-normal winters, on average, for the next decade or two. The last cool phase of the PDO persisted from 1947 to 1976, which coincides with the historic 1950s drought in the Southwest.. For more info visit: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/

This month's cover photo There was still snow visable in the mountains just south of Flagstaff, Arizona as of May 14 when this photo was taken near Mormon Lake at an elevation of 7500 feet. Source: John J. Capuano III