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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Casey Thornbrugh, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2007
Date issued: May 23, 2007
A. Summary
The May 23, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [May 2007 PDF, 2.47 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Drought conditions continue to plague much of Arizona. West-central parts of the state are hardest-hit in the short term, while central southeastern Arizona faces the most severe conditions over the long term. Meanwhile, most of New Mexico remains drought-free.
Temperature – New Mexico’s temperatures have been running below-normal while Arizona’s temperatures have been registering above-normal. This pattern emerged during the water year that began October 1, and continued to be apparent over the past thirty days.
Precipitation – Precipitation patterns helped explain both the temperature and drought differences between Arizona and New Mexico. Sunny days warmed and dried Arizona, while clouds provided relief to New Mexico. Southern New Mexico received double or more the usual precipitation in the past month, while western Arizona lacked any measurable precipitation.
Climate Forecasts – Judging from temperature forecasts, Arizona remains vulnerable to continued drought. Predictions for above-average summer temperatures in the West center on Arizona and also include New Mexico. No forecasts covering the Southwest have been issued for precipitation, but drought conditions in Arizona are projected to improve slightly over the summer with the expected arrival of the annual monsoonal rains.
The Bottom Line – High temperatures and low precipitation have maintained drought conditions in much of Arizona, while the opposite conditions have helped most of New Mexico stay drought-free. Still, the southern portions of both states are projected to face above-normal fire risk through at least the end of May. The risk is greatest in lower and middle elevations where grasses can quickly dry into tinder.
Hold on to your hat!
“In like a lion, out like a lamb” is an old weather proverb describing the blustery conditions of March giving way to the relative tranquility of April. This proverb obviously wasn’t written by someone living in the Southwest. April and May are actually the windiest months across Arizona and New Mexico. New Mexico’s average wind speed, calculated from station observations across the state, is 11.6 and 10.9 miles per hour for April and May, respectively. This compares to an annual average wind speed of 9.6 mph. Arizona’s average wind speeds are slightly lower, but follow the same pattern. The average wind speed is 8.6 mph for April and 8.5 mph for May; the annual state average is 7.2 mph. The transition from winter to spring weather in April and May creates north-south gradients in both temperatures and surface pressures. As the atmosphere works to bring things back into balance, it creates consistent blustery conditions during the spring. For more wind data visit the WRCC: | This month's cover photo
This photo of a dust wall,the leading edge of a dust storm, was taken in Tempe, Arizona in the late 1970s from a residential roof with the photographer facing South. Dust storms such as these appear throughout the Southwest during windy times of year such as the months of April and May. Source: Malcolm Comeaux |
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