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"Southwest drought can pack a hefty punch" and "Putting the AZ drought plan into action" (PDF, 239 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2006
Date issued: May 24, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Drought has intensified in the Southwest, with most of the region in severe or extreme status and some areas in exceptional drought.
• Southwest drought conditions are expected to persist or intensify, but improvements are expected in western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona.
• The exceptionally low snowpack in most of the basins in Arizona and New Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of much below average for 2006.
• Reservoirs in Arizona have declined since last year. New Mexico reservoirs are better than last year, but the large Colorado River reservoirs, Elephant Butte, and other important reservoirs remain below average.
Fire Danger – The long-term moisture deficits and the abundant fine dry fuels produced by last year’s wet winter point to an active and severe fire season.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – The Southwest has been much drier than average since the start of the water year, with less than 50 percent of average precipitation in most areas.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and equal chances of precipitation through November 2006.
El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are expected to continue over the next three to six months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is like to persist or intensify over most of the Southwest Hydrological drought continues to affect streamflow and some large reservoir levels, and agricultural drought conditions have persisted throughout the region.
Southwest Fire Season
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This month's cover photo
This pool in Sharp Spring in the San Rafael Valley has dried back due to drought leaving the water level stage gauge high and dry. Sharp Spring contains, or at least used to contain the endangered fish, the Gila topminnow. The endangered plant, the Huachuca water umbel still occurs there. Source: Doug Duncan |
The Southwest is facing a potentially very active and intense fire season, particularly in the timber fuel types in the middle to higher elevations, beginning in late May and early June. Fine fuels across Arizona and New Mexico, mostly grasses produced by the wet winter of 2004–2005, and larger fuel types have been dried to a near-continuous carpet of very low moisture content by the severe to extreme drought conditions in the region. The warmer-than-average temperature outlook, coupled with the dry conditions almost always to be expected in May and June in the Southwest, will combine with the unusually dry fuel conditions to produce very high fire potential across the region. No relief is in sight until the arrival of monsoon moisture in June in New Mexico and July in Arizona..
| B. Recent Conditions > |