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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Shoshana Mayden, Editor
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2005
Date issued: May 24, 2005
A. Summary
The May 24, 2005 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [May 2005 PDF, 3.5 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Hydrological Drought – Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the Southwest, as snowmelt runoff feeds reservoirs.
• Lake Powell storage is expected to increase through July 2005. However, combined storage at Lake Powell and Lake Mead is still well below capacity.
• Storage in most Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs continued to increase. Most New Mexico reservoirs, remain below 35 percent of capacity.
Temperature – During the past 30 days temperatures in the Southwest were generally cooler than average.
Precipitation – Water year precipitation is above average for most of the Southwest. During the past 30 days, southern Arizona and southwestern and eastern New Mexico have been drier than average. Northern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico received above-average precipitation, chiefly during late April.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal temperature outlooks call for increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest. Seasonal precipitation outlooks call for slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation in the Southwest this summer. Precipitation is rarely predicted in the summer.
El Niño – Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the tropical Pacific Ocean, although the probability of continuing El Niño conditions remains above average.
The Bottom Line – Above-average streamflow, from runoff of above-average snowpack, especially in northern New Mexico, will continue to ameliorate hydrological drought conditions Southwest. Summer season forecasts indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the Southwest.
Resevoir Debate Drought-depleted Lake Powell will release its usual allocation this year, following a May directive from the U.S. Interior Secretary. The decision favors Arizona and other Lower Basin states, which argued that reducing its downstream flow would reduce Glen Canyon Dam’s and Hoover Dam's ability to supply electricity. New Mexico and other Upper Basin states had argued that abundant precipitation since fall meant Lake Mead should provide more of the Lower Basin’s share of the Colorado River. See Figure 5 for more information. |
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