Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - May 2003

Date issued: May 23, 2003

A. Summary

Hydrological drought will continue to be a major concern for the Southwest during the upcoming months. Most Arizona and New Mexico reservoir levels remain below average. The New Mexico Drought Monitor Committee has declared emergency status for most New Mexico rivers (including the Rio Grande and the Pecos Rivers). Below-average streamflow is forecasted for the Colorado River at Lake Powell.

Fire danger is above average across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico. Dry weather characteristic of the pre-monsoon period will increase fire danger across our region. Several National Forests in New Mexico and Arizona have already declared campfire restrictions.

New Mexico and Arizona have the poorest range and pasture conditions (relative to state averages) in the United States, due chiefly to long-term soil moisture deficits and high potential for erosion. Long-term drought will have lingering soil moisture effects on agriculture over a large portion of New Mexico.

Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-average temperature across Arizona and New Mexico during the summer months.

La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. La Niña often, but not always, brings early and above-average summer rainfall to the Southwest. Historical climate records show that La Niña brings warm winter temperatures and reliably dry, though very occasionally average, winters.

Bottom line: Although short-term drought conditions have ameliorated conditions for most of the Southwest, the drought is not over. La Niña might help summer monsoons precipitation, but persistent La Niña conditions will almost certainly result in below-average Southwest winter precipitation. Water supply, streamflow, and soil moisture will continue to be of concern for the foreseeable future.

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