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Global warming determined to be "unequivocal" (PDF, 261KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Casey Thornbrugh, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - March 2007
Date issued: March 20, 2007
A. Summary
The March 20, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [March 2007 PDF, 2.27 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Drought conditions have worsened slightly in Arizona due to below-average winter precipitation, while most of New Mexico remains drought-free.
Temperature – Temperatures have been above average in most of the Southwest over the past thirty days.
Precipitation – During the past month precipitation has been below average for much of Arizona and New Mexico.
Climate Forecasts – Through September 2007, temperatures are expected to be warmer than average in the Southwest, while chances are equal for below-average, average, or above-average precipitation.
El Niño – Current sea surface temperatures indicate neutral ENSO conditions and there is a chance of La Niña event developing later this summer.
The Bottom Line – As the Southwest prepares to enter the climatologically dry spring, most of New Mexico has received above-average winter precipitation, while winter’s El Niño event failed to deliver above-average precipitation to most of Arizona.
Southwest Wildfire Season Outlook
Warm temperatures expected through the spring after an early and sudden snowmelt late this winter will likely expedite the wildfire season in southwestern forest and woodlands. In the beginning of March, most watersheds in the Arizona high country had 70–95 percent of average snowpack for the late winter. In high elevations of New Mexico, early March snowpack was 80–150 percent of average. However, near-record warmth in the Southwest during the first half of March significantly reduced snowpack to 10–70 percent of average in Arizona and 40–90 percent in New Mexico. In addition to forest and woodlands, the deserts and grasslands of the lower elevations of the Southwest will also be highly susceptible to fires this year. Last year’s abundant monsoon precipitation (130–200 percent of average in many locations in Arizona and New Mexico) has increased the density of grasses and forbs. Most of this vegetation remains dried-out as an abundant fuel-load for wildfires. | This month's cover photo
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Yuma Desalting Plant sediment settling ponds. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is currently experimenting with bringing the desalting plant back online, in order to help meet water quality standards for deliveries of Colorado River water to Mexico. Source: Gregg Garfin, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth |
| B. Recent Conditions > |