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Experts discuss early start to Southwest fire season (PDF, 285 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - March 2006
Date issued: March 21, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Recent rain and snow brought some short-term relief to the Southwest, but most of the region is in severe or extreme drought.
- The extremely low snowpack in most of the basins in Arizona and New Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of well below average for 2006.
- Reservoirs have improved since last year, but many remain below average.
Fire Danger – The rain and snow received in mid-March may delay the start of the fire season, but the abundant fine dry fuels still point to a very active fire season.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Almost all of the Southwest has been drier than average since the start of the water year, especially during the last four months.
Climate Forecasts – Forecasts show increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures through September and equal chances of precipitation through June.
El Niño – Ongoing La Niña conditions are expected to continue over the next three to six months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist throughout most of the Southwest following some temporary improvement in Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Hydrological drought continues to affect some large reservoir levels, and agricultural drought conditions have persisted throughout most of the region.
Drought & fire danger in the Southwest
Visit http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/news/news.html for more information. |
The ongoing drought strengthened its grip on the Southwest over the past winter—a winter that’s shaping up to be one of the driest and warmest on record. Last year’s wet winter and spring gave most of the Southwest some needed, but temporary, relief, as reservoir levels increased and forests revived somewhat. Last year’s moisture produced an abundant crop of grasses, which is rapidly curing in this year’s warm dry weather. The grass crop has become a blanket of fine dry fuel, very easily ignited, and capable of carrying fire rapidly from rangeland into timber country and urban areas. This year Arizona’s “February Fire” burned over 4,000 acres near Payson, raising the specter of an early and active Southwest fire season.
| B. Recent Conditions > |