Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - March 2003

Date issued: March 26, 2003

A. Summary

Recent storms have eased short-term drought across the Southwest. The greatest precipitation totals have been across western and central Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Long-term (hydrological) drought is still a major concern for the Southwest. For most of Arizona and New Mexico, reservoir levels remain below average.

Snowpack has increased over the course of the last month, due to several storms that moved across the Southwest. However, snowpack remains below average over most of the Southwest, with the exception of northeastern New Mexico.

El Niño conditions continued to weaken during the past month and are predicted to continue weakening during the next two months. There is considerable uncertainty in El Niño forecasts for the rest of 2003. Neutral Pacific Ocean conditions are likely this summer; however, La Niña conditions might return this winter.

Seasonal climate forecasts continue to indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average precipitation across most of Arizona and New Mexico for the remainder of the spring. Summer forecasts, however, are uncertain.

Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average temperature across Arizona and western New Mexico during the summer months.

Bottom line: Short-term drought is expected to ease in the Southwest. However, some degree of long-term hydrological drought is likely to persist in the region (spring into summer months). Recent rain and snowfall have reduced short-term fire danger in most areas until later this spring. Water supply and streamflow will continue to be of concern for the foreseeable future.

B. Recent Conditions >