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The wet winter and the basins' bathtubs (PDF,174 KB)

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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Joe Abraham, CLIMAS Project Manager
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - June 2008

Date issued: June 27, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – March and April were extremely dry across Arizona, causing short-term drought status to be downgraded one category for most of the state’s watersheds.

Temperature – In the past month, temperatures in western Arizona and northwestern New Mexico have been slightly colder than average, while temperatures in southeastern Arizona and southwestern and north central New Mexico have been slightly above average.

Precipitation – In the past thirty days, precipitation has been localized and isolated in both states, typical of convective thunderstorms. Many regions in Arizona have received greater than 200 percent of the average precipitation; some isolated storms have caused precipitation to be greater than 800 percent of the average values.

ENSO – A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed since mid-February. The atmospheric manifestation of La Niña is also weakening. Most forecast models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming June–August season.

Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts for the Southwest predict increased chances of above-average temperatures for most of the region through December. The precipitation outlook for Arizona and New Mexico calls for equal chances of above-, near-, and below-average precipitation through December.

The Bottom Line – Temperatures continued to be above average for much of the Southwest, and this trend is expected to continue. Precipitation was variable. The amount of monsoon rain, though difficult to predict, may provide drought relief in some areas.

Monsoon season has a new start date For Arizona, the monsoon season this year officially kicked off on June 15 and will end on September 30. The change from past years, when the monsoon onset was tied to average dew point temperatures, came after National Weather Service offices in Tucson, Phoenix, and Flagstaff, agreed that bracketing the monsoon season with specific calendar dates simplifies communication to the public about when the monsoon storms are likely to start and what the hazards may be. New Mexico does not define a monsoon season, but in Arizona, the beginning of the summer rains has been a moving target from year to year and from location to location. Historically, the monsoon season in Tucson began when three consecutive days had average dew point temperatures that surpassed 54 degrees F. In Phoenix, that threshold was 55 degrees F. The new start date will alert people that hazards, such as flash floods, dust storms, lightning strikes, strong winds, hail, and high heat may occur. For more info visit: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/

This month's cover photo This aerial photograph was taken from an airplane traveling from Tucson, Arizona to Kansas City Kansas in June 2008. Source: Gregg Garfin