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Arizona drought coming back into focus (PDF, 131KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director of Outreach
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Sara O’Brian, ISPE Assistant Staff Scientist
Nancy Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - June 2007
Date issued: June 27, 2007
A. Summary
The June 27, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [June 2007 PDF, 2.43 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Severe to extreme drought conditions continue across Arizona while most of New Mexico remains drought-free this month. Western portions of Arizona along the Colorado River are experiencing the worst in drought conditions, with decreasing intensity eastward across the state.
Temperature – The same story continues this month with New Mexico experiencing below-average temperatures, and Arizona experiencing above-average temperatures in the short-term. North-central and south-eastern Arizona had the greatest positive departures from average, with temperatures 2–3 degrees F above-average over the past thirty days.
Precipitation – New Mexico continued to experience above-average precipitation this past month with many locations reporting 100–400 percent of normal precipitation. Several low pressure systems produced thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of New Mexico late in May and again in mid-June. Arizona saw some of this weather activity in southeastern and north-central portions of the state.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona and eastern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures throughout the summer. No precipitation forecasts have been made for the Southwest, indicating equal chances of above-average, average, or below-average precipitation for the region.
The Bottom Line – Little has changed since last month, with severe to extreme drought conditions remaining over most of Arizona, while New Mexico holds on to generally drought-free conditions. Patterns of monsoon precipitation across the Southwest will be critical in determining where short-term drought conditions either improve or worsen over the summer.
Monsoon soon?
This is the time of year when citizens of Arizona and New Mexico anxiously look to the North American Monsoon System to shift into high gear, bringing thunderstorms and precipitation to the region. Activity has started to ramp up in New Mexico, but Arizonans are still waiting for the tell-tale increase in dew point temperatures across the state that signals the monsoon’s approach. The average start date for the monsoon in Tucson is July 3, but this seasonal shift in wind direction has come as early as June 17 (in 2000) and as late as July 25 (in 1985). The official start of the monsoon in Tucson occurs after the average daily dewpoint is equal to or exceeds 54 degrees Fahrenheit for three consecutive days as determined by the National Weather Service. In Phoenix, the monsoon is considered to have started when the daily dew point averages 55 degrees or higher for three consecutive days. The average start date in Phoenix is July 7. To monitor monsoon season, visit http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon | This month's cover photo
A Navajo Nation technician examines data recording instruments at the Lukachukai Creek streamgage in northeastern Arizona. Source: Gregg Garfin |
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