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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
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Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - June 2006
Date issued: June 21, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Drought continues in the Southwest, with most of the region in severe or extreme drought, and some areas in exceptional drought due to the long-term precipitation deficits.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or intensify throughout most of the Southwest. Some improvement is expected in western New Mexico and southern Arizona.
- Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year.
Fire Danger – The long-term moisture deficits and high fuel loadings are producing critically high fire potential, particularly in the higher elevation timber.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005 temperatures throughout most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – The Southwest has been much drier than average since the start of the water year, with many locations experiencing the driest winter and spring on record.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and equal chances of precipitation through December 2006.
El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue over at least the next three months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist or intensify over most of the Southwest. Hydrological drought continues to affect streamflow and some large reservoir levels, and agricultural drought conditions have persisted throughout the region.
New Mexico Drought Maps
The New Mexico Drought Status page, which you usually find in the “Recent Conditions” section of the Southwest Climate Outlook is not included in this month’s issue. The meteorological (short-term) drought map can be found online at the National Weather Service Albuquerque Office’s website: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq. We will reinstate a newly designed New Mexico Drought Status page next month. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. The New Mexico Drought Monitor Committee is currently reassessing its drought maps, and the Southwest Climate Outlook will include these new maps in future issues. See Figure 3 for more info on drought... |
This month's cover photo
This photograph was submitted by Paul Brierley. It pictures a dust storm that blanketed Phoenix, Arizona on June 6, 2006. Paul Brierley wrote, “[This is] a photo that my wife, Kathy Brierley, took before the storm hit Chandler/Gilbert. At this point we were just starting to feel the wind. Just moments before the picture, we watched the dust overtake the San Tan mountains.” Source: Kathy Brierley |
| B. Recent Conditions > |