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Monsoon could strengthen as climate warms (PDF, 168 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Shoshana Mayden, Editor
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - June 2005
Date issued: June 21, 2005
A. Summary
The June 21, 2005 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [June 2005 PDF, 2.7 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Hydrological Drought – Despite unusual spring rainfall in parts of the Southwest, abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought persist.
• Lake Powell topped 10 million acre-feet for the first time since July 27, 2004.
• Storage in most New Mexico reservoirs increased, but statewide storage was still below average at the end of May.
Temperature – The water year has been near average in the Southwest, while the past 30 days were mainly above average.
Precipitation – Most locations, except portions of southeastern Arizona, are much wetter than average for the water year.
Climate Forecasts – NOAA-CPC long-lead outlooks show increased chances of above-average temperatures for much of the Southwest through December. Increased chances of drier-than-average conditions are expected through September.
El Niño – Probabilistic forecasts indicate that the current neutral ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to continue through early 2006.
The Bottom Line – Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought will persist through September in portions of the Southwest. Wildfire potential will remain above average as grasses continue to cure.
Monsoon Experts predict a late monsoon onset and below-average monsoon precipitation this year. Outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center show increased chances of drier-than-average conditions through September. Some studies have shown that above-average snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountains and spring rainfall in the Southwest, similar to this year, can negatively affect monsoon precipitation. Arizona ranchers and farmers agree with the latter. They have an adage that a wet spring, or any late spring precipitation, results in a dry monsoon. Regarding monsoon onset, an ancient Indian proverb states, “Rain will occur about a week after locusts begin to sing at night.” The next few weeks and months will tell what Mother Nature’s monsoon plans are for the Southwest in 2005. See Figure 9 for more information. |
