A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

Understanding the southwestern monsoon (PDF, 209 KB)

More Information:

	Most Recent Summary
	Subscribe
	Glossary
	Feature Article Archive
	Related Links
	Disclaimer

Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Joe Abraham, CLIMAS Project Manager
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2008

Date issued: July 22, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Drought – Above-average monsoon rainfall in the last month has reduced drought severity in southern and southeastern Arizona and New Mexico.

Temperature – Temperatures across western and central Arizona have been 2–6 degrees F above average, while temperatures around central and southeastern New Mexico have been 0–2 degrees F cooler than average.

Precipitation – In the past 30 days, most of southern New Mexico and southern Arizona have received 200–800 percent of average precipitation.

Monsoon – Intense monsoon storms have generated above-average precipitation for nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico.

ENSO – Sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are near-average. ENSO-neutral conditions have returned.

Climate Forecasts – The long-lead forecast made by the Climate Prediction Center for April through June matched well with the observations of below-average precipitation and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures in the Southwest.

The Bottom Line – Thanks to a wet, early monsoon season, predicted by forecasters, Arizona could escape the summer relatively unscarred by fire. Although the monsoon rains have been welcome by fire managers, who are now diverting most Arizona fire-fighting resources to other parts of the country, severe weather from intense storms will continue to create hazards such as flash floods, high winds, and dust storms.

Online Monsoon Briefings Interested in the daily monsoon activity? Concerned about the flash flood potential? Curious if hiking on the sky islands may be wet? The Department of Atmospheric Sciences at The University of Arizona (UA) is currently hosting online and in person monsoon briefings each weekday. The meetings target interested natural resource managers, university faculty, and citizens; they begin at 11:30 a.m. MST and normally last approximately 30 minutes. The briefings are led by several professors. The format is interactive, with a short presentation on monsoon activity followed by a brief discussion period. The presentation includes graphics and animations from numerous meteorological sources. The presenters explain precipitation maps, water vapor trends, Doppler radar animations, and wind speeds, among other important monsoon data, to provide a picture of the possible evolution of the monsoon for the current day as well as forecasts over one to two days and three to five days. The briefings will continue through early August. For more info visit: www.atmo.arizona.edu

This month's cover photo This photograph of monsoon rainfaill was taken on the Colorado Plateau near Springerville, AZ in August 2007. Source: Zack Guido