A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2007

Date issued: July 25, 2007

A. Summary

Drought – Drought conditions remain at moderate to severe levels across Arizona again this month while most of New Mexico remains drought free. Extreme drought conditions have grown to include the western third of Arizona with decreasing intensity eastward into New Mexico.

Temperature – Above-average temperatures dominated most of Arizona again this month with some locations reporting departures of 6–8 degrees F. New Mexico was generally near-average with far eastern sections slightly below-average.

Precipitation – Precipitation was spotty in New Mexico over the past thirty days with locations in northeastern and southeastern portions of the state reporting 150–400 percent of average. Many other locations saw only 25–50 percent of average precipitation. Arizona was below-average once again, with most locations reporting less than 75 percent of average.

Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona and eastern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures throughout the summer. Seasonal precipitation forecasts reflect ‘equal-chances’ through October while the November–January period introduces a slight shift towards a higher chance of drier conditions for southern New Mexico and Arizona.

The Bottom Line – A slow start to the monsoon and above-average temperatures have done little to alleviate drought conditions across Arizona. Most of New Mexico is hanging on to drought-free conditions, even with slightly below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across western portions of the state. Monsoon thunderstorm precipitation has been growing in coverage and intensity over the past several weeks, which could bring drought relief to many parched areas through the next month.