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Monsoon impact on society: the good and the bad (PDF, 154 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
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Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2006
Date issued: July 26, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Drought conditions persist in the Southwest despite an early start to the monsoon season.
• Much of eastern and southern Arizona is in extreme or exceptional drought. Drought status for most of the remainder of the Southwest is severe.
• Reservoir levels in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year. From last month, Arizona reservoirs are at approximately the same level, while New Mexico’s have declined 11 percent.
Fire Danger – Fire danger in the Southwest has decreased due to precipitation and increased humidity associated with the monsoon season.
Temperature – Since the water year began October 1, 2005, temperatures for most of the Southwest have been 0–4 degrees Fahrenheit above average.
Precipitation – Precipitation has been far below average since the water year began, though during the previous month some areas have received above-average rainfall from monsoon thunderstorms.
Climate Forecasts – Forecasters predict increased probabilities of warmer-than-average temperatures through 2006. There are no forecasted precipitation anomalies.
El Niño – Currently, ENSO conditions are neutral and are forecast to remain so for at least the next three months.
The Bottom Line – An early monsoon start has put a damper on the fire season and provided some short-term drought relief, but drought conditions are expected to persist.
New Mexico native fish populations dwindling
The cutthroat trout, which now occupies less than 10 percent of its historic range, has been hybridized over the years by nonnative rainbow trout, and pushed out of much of its habitat by nonnative brown trout. In a survey on the Rio Puerco this year, no fish at all were found in a 1,000-meter stretch of the river that had produced a tally of 285 Rio Grande cutthroats a year ago, according to a June 26 article in the Albuquerque Journal. The Forest Service, the state Game and Fish Department, and conservation groups are working to improve former cutthroat habitats in order to repopulate them with fish from other streams. Biologists are hoping for a productive monsoon to generate enough runoff to tide over the trout through until the cool season. For more info on New Mexico water storage see Figure 7 . |
This month's cover photo
This photograph shows a monsoon rainstorm over the Santa Catalina Mountains to the north of Tucson, Arizona. It was taken on July 18 at 5 p.m. from The University of Arizona webcam located in an office on the ninth floor of the Gould-Simpson building. The webcam is operated by Gregg Townsend in the UA Department of Computer Science. New images are updated hourly and can be accessed online at http://www.cs.arizona.edu/camera. Source: Arizona Webcam, UA Department of Computer Science |
The record drought in New Mexico is putting native fish in danger. Last winter’s pitifully low snowfall has resulted in extremely low runoff in many of northern New Mexico’s high country streams. The low flows are threatening dwindling populations of the native Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the state fish. 
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