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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Shoshana Mayden, Editor
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2005
Date issued: July 26, 2005
A. Summary
Hydrological Drought – Abnormally dry to moderate drought persists in the Southwest.
• Abnormally dry status was reintroduced in parts of central and southwestern New Mexico.
• Lake Powell is at 50 percent of capacity for the first time since August and September 2003.
• Reservoir storage in both Arizona and New Mexico remains above 2004 values.
Temperature – Water year temperatures are near to above average in the Southwest. The past 30 days were also above average for most of the Southwest.
Precipitation – Most of the Southwest, except portions of southeastern Arizona, remains wetter than average, while the past 30 days were anomalously dry.
Climate Forecasts – Long-lead outlooks indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures through January 2006 in Arizona and much of New Mexico. Models predict a weak, dry monsoon and below-average precipitation through October.
El Niño – Probabilistic forecasts show that the neutral ENSO conditions are most likely to continue through June 2006.
The Bottom Line – Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought conditions are expected to deteriorate through October with a weak, dry monsoon.
Bring on the Monsoon The monsoon has officially started across the desert Southwest! Tucson recorded three consecutive days of daily average dewpoints above 54 degrees F from July 18th through July 20th making July 18th the official 2005 start date for Tucson. Phoenix uses a slightly different dewpoint threshold (55 degrees F) to mark the beginning of the monsoon, but also recorded a start date of July 18th. The arrival of the monsoon was unusually late this year when compared with the average start dates of July 3rd in Tucson and July 7th in Phoenix. The July 18th monsoon start date was the second latest on record according to the National Weather Service Office in Tucson. The latest monsoon start on record was July 25th in 1987 for both Tucson and Phoenix. |
