Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2004

Date issued: July 20, 2004

A. Summary

The July 2004 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [July 2004 PDF, 2.6 MB] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.

• Interior Arizona and Rio Grande corridor reservoir levels continue to fall.

• Current storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage is well below average and is expected to decline through the summer months.

Precipitation – The summer monsoon arrived late in the Southwest. Thus far, summer precipitation has been well below average across most of New Mexico and parts of Arizona. June storms helped eastern New Mexico.

Temperature – Temperatures have been about average across most of the Southwest during the past month.

Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months, but only slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across western and southern Arizona for the fall and early winter. An experimental monsoon forecast shows good chances for above-average precipitation during the heart of the monsoon season.

El Niño – Forecasts indicate a 40 percent chance, at best, of the development of El Niño (wet Southwest) this winter.

The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest for the foreseeable future.

 

Fire + Rain = Summer This month we feature new recent conditions pages on the summer monsoon and fire activity in the Southwest. In addition, our monthly focus page looks at an experimental monsoon forecast produced by Arizona’s State Climatologist. This year’s monsoon has been sleepy, by and large, but the monsoon is infamous for its spatial inhomogeneity—i.e., it can produce torrential downpours on one side of the street, while the other side remains bone dry. Here are some of the summer success stories for 2004: Arizona record high single day precipitation—Payson (2.56 in. on July 14); New Mexico record high single day precipitation —Clines Corners (1.91 in. on July 11). Nogales, Arizona has received 2.78 in. of monsoon precipitation thus far; Nogales has received at least a trace of precipitation each day since July 8, the official start of the monsoon at the Tucson National Weather Service forecast office. (All data quoted are unofficial and have not been subjected to quality control).

 

B. Recent Conditions >