Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - July 2002

Date issued: July 22, 2002

A. Summary

Despite the arrival of summer monsoon moisture, long-term climate and drought indices show that severe drought continues to grip the Southwest. Forecasts show that drought is likely to persist during the short-term (1-3 months). For the vast majority of Arizona and New Mexico, there is a less than 50% likelihood of receiving enough precipitation to receive significant relief from drought conditions during the next 3 months. For northern Arizona and New Mexico, the likelihood of significant drought relief is less than 5% during the next 3 months.

Despite the arrival of summer monsoon moisture, long-term climate and drought indices show that severe drought continues to grip the Southwest. Forecasts show that drought is likely to persist during the short-term (1-3 months). For the vast majority of Arizona and New Mexico, there is a less than 50% likelihood of receiving enough precipitation to receive significant relief from drought conditions during the next 3 months. For northern Arizona and New Mexico, the likelihood of significant drought relief is less than 5% during the next 3 months.

Forecasters have high confidence that a weak-to-moderate El Niño event will develop during the next 3-9 months. Based on instrumental records, the majority of El Niño events have brought greater than average precipitation to Arizona and New Mexico; thus, forecasts show a slight increase in the likelihood of above average precipitation by the turn of the year. However, Southwest winter precipitation during El Niño years is highly variable, and weak El Niño events during the past 50 years have sometimes resulted in lower than average winter precipitation in our region.

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