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Cattle and climate: Ranching in the arid Southwest (PDF, 811 KB)

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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

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Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2009

Date issued: January 21, 2009

A. Summary

Drought – A swath of abnormally dry conditions persists in the north and central parts of Arizona, while drought conditions are no longer present in west-central parts of the state. Most of eastern New Mexico is now classified as abnormally dry.

Temperature – Western Arizona has been mostly 4–6 degrees F colder than average, while eastern New Mexico has been mostly 2–4 degrees F warmer than average.

Precipitation – A series of winter storms moved across Arizona and northwestern New Mexico in the past 30 days. While most of Arizona received 100–400 percent of average precipitation, most of New Mexico received less than 50 percent of average.

ENSO – Sea surface temperatures cooled across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean through December and early January, causing NOAA-CPC to declare a La Niña event.

Snow – Winter storms in December covered the higher elevations in many watersheds in Arizona and New Mexico with snow. On January 1, major river basins in Arizona had snow water equivalent (SWE) ranging between 131 and 334 percent of average; northern New Mexico had values of 100 to 175 percent of average.

Climate Forecasts – Forecasts show increased chances of above-average temperatures for much of the Southwest through June, and slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico through May.

The Bottom Line – Recent winter storms should improve short-term drought conditions in Arizona and will be reflected in the February Southwest Climate Outlook. The recent development of a La Niña event suggests the total winter precipitation will be below average. These conditions likely contributed to near-average streamflow forecasts for the spring-summer despite the above-average early-season snowfall accumulations.

Last year one of the warmest since 1880 On December 16, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Britain’s Hadley Center released surface air temperature summaries for the meteorological year beginning December 1, 2007, and ending November 31, 2008. According to each of these records, which are based on different networks of measuring instruments, the average global temperature for this meteorological year was about 0.75 degrees F warmer than the 1951–1980 average. GISS temperature analysis shows that the average surface air temperatures in the majority of Arizona and New Mexico were between 0.0 and 0.2 degrees F above average. According to the GISS temperature analysis, this past meteorological year is between the seventh and twelfth warmest since widespread record-keeping began in 1880—the range arises from uncertainty in the measurements. Although, this year’s average global temperature was the coolest since 2000, influenced by the La Niña. For more info: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/

This month's cover photo Source: GiGi Owen This photo taken in June 2008, shows a pecan orchard in New Mexico being flood irrigated.