A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification: Past, Present, and Future (PDF, 194 KB)

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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Deborah Bathke, New Mexico State Climatologist
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director of Outreach
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2008

Date issued: January 24, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Drought conditions have remained unchanged or improved slightly across Arizona and New Mexico due to precipitation in late November and December. These early winter storms missed much of eastern New Mexico, leaving abnormally dry conditions to persist there. The precipitation across Arizona has improved short-term drought status, but most of the state is experiencing some type of drought.

Temperature – Temperatures have been below average for the past thirty days across Arizona and New Mexico. Most locations observed temperatures 3 to 6 degrees F below average for the period.

Precipitation – Much of Arizona and New Mexico observed below-average precipitation over the past thirty days. Only northern portions of both states saw average to above-average precipitation due to storms crossing the region in early January.

ENSO – A moderate La Niña is still underway in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist through the spring. Forecasts point to a mature La Niña event that is impacting circulation patterns across the Pacific Ocean.

Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts continue to indicate that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are in store for the Southwest through the spring.

The Bottom Line – Cool and wet conditions in December brought accumulating snow and some short-term drought relief to much of Arizona and New Mexico—a pleasant surprise given the moderate La Niña event underway. The current event is expected to persist and bring below-average precipitation to much of the Southwest through the spring. The current short-term precipitation deficits could continue if typical La Niña impacts emerge as expected over the next several months.