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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

 

Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate

Casey Thornbrugh, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate

 

 


Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2007

Date issued: January 23, 2007

A. Summary

The January 23, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [January 2007 PDF, 2.3 MB]

front page of packet

Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Drought – Conditions have improved somewhat in New Mexico due to winter
precipitation but have deteriorated slightly in Arizona.

  • In the short-term, much of New Mexico is drought-free while most of Arizona is abnormally dry or in moderate drought.
  • Long-term conditions are forecast to improve somewhat with the expectation of above-average winter precipitation.

Temperature – Temperatures over the past thirty days have generally been cooler than average for most of the Southwest.

Precipitation – Over the past month, most of Arizona has had below-average precipitation while large regions in New Mexico have had above-average precipitation.

Climate Forecasts – Forecasters predict increased chances for above-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest through May.

El Niño – Weak El Niño conditions are expected to persist through April, though the current event may have already reached peak strength.

The Bottom Line – Cooler-than-average temperatures combined with predicted above-average precipitation this winter could mean drought relief, increased water supplies, and fewer wildfires later in the year for the Southwest.

Global warming update

image of news reporter

Cold snaps come and go, but the world as a whole is warming up and will continue to do so for many decades to come. For the latest findings on the extent of the warming, watch for some breaking news on February 2. On that day, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will share its Summary for Policymakers of the first volume of Climate Change 2007, their new assessment report.

Some of the report’s contributing authors, including The University of Arizona’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Director Jonathan Overpeck, will be gathered in Paris that Friday for a press conference. The summary will outline the evidence for climate change, and society’s role in it. The full report will be released by mid-year. To watch a live webcast of the press conference and stay up to date on their findings, visit the IPCC website.

For more info visit: http://www.ipcc.ch/

This month's cover photo

snowman in tucson

A rare snowstorm hit Tucson, Arizona on January 21. Notable accumulations of snow do not normally occur in downtown Tucson, which more often sees scattered flakes of snow if any. However, this storm brought enough for someone to build a snowman on The University of Arizona campus. Local news agencies reported up to three inches in some parts of the city.

Source: Steve Novy, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

  B. Recent Conditions >

© 2006 Arizona Board of Regents. CLIMAS is part of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona.
Send comments or questions to climas@email.arizona.edu

Document located at: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/archive/jan2007/swoutlook.html
Page last updated: January 23, 2007