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El Niño: a wild card for climate change impacts (PDF, 290 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - January 2006
Date issued: January 24, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Severe drought conditions now exist in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Drought or abnormally dry conditions have expanded to include nearly all of the Southwest, except for extreme northwestern Arizona.- Drought conditions are expected to intensify throughout most of the Southwest, due to recent warmer and much drier-than-average conditions.
- The lack of snowpack in most of the river basins in Arizona and southern New Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of well below average.
- Drought conditions are improved from last year, but many important reservoirs in New Mexico remain below average.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Almost all of the Southwest has been drier than average since the start of the water year, especially during the last two months.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures through July, and below-average precipitation through May.
El Niño – La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail over the next three to six months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist or intensify over most of the Southwest except for far western Arizona.
Lack of snow in the Southwest
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Snow is important for more than just skiing or snowboarding—it is also a crucial part of the Southwest’s water supply. Spring runoff from melting winter snow is essential for maintaining river volumes and reservoir levels throughout the Southwest. So far this winter, snowfall in the region has been far below average. In Flagstaff, less than an inch of snow has fallen since September 1, 2005—more than 41 inches below average. In New Mexico, snow water content at sites throughout the state ranges from 4 to 35 percent of average. Projections for spring runoff range from 30 to 48 percent of average for many rivers in Arizona. Fortunately, many reservoirs, including those which supply the Phoenix area, still have adequate water from above-average precipitation last winter.
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