| Home | About CLIMAS | People | Forecasts | Research & Products | Learn About SW Climate | Publications | Calendar | Links |
In this Section:
 |
A. Summary |
|
|
|
C. Forecasts |
|
D. Forecast Verification |
|
This month's
feature article:
Scientists
look to ocean for clues about drought (PDF, 118K)
More Information:
|
Most Recent Summary |
|
Subscribe |
|
Glossary |
|
|
|
Related Links |
|
Disclaimer |
Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - January
2004
Date issued: January 27, 2004
A. Summary
Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
-
All New Mexico reservoirs are at well below average levels.
-
Storage in the major Colorado River reservoirs is still below average.
Water year precipitation for most of the Southwest is still below average.
However, recent precipitation will bring short-term drought relief to
Arizona, and more precipitation is forecast for the Southwest during
late January 2004. However, snowpack is still quite low for this time
of year for much of Arizona and New Mexico.
During
the past 30 days, temperatures have been above average across the Southwest,
with the exception of northern Arizona. During late December, many low
temperature records were set in our region.
Seasonal
forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average
temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the winter
and into the early summer months. February-April 2004 precipitation
forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of below-average
precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico.
ENSO conditions
remain neutral. However, there is a somewhat better than average chance
of a weak El Niño episode developing in 2004.
Bottom line: Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest through the winter.
-
The most likely scenario is that above-average temperatures will continue throughout the winter and early spring. Despite recent precipitation in the Southwest, there is no indication that the Southwest will receive drought-ending precipitation during the next several months.
-
The worst case scenario is that continued neutral ENSO conditions do not bring even average precipitation to the Southwest. This would result in continued soil moisture and reservoir depletion by the beginning of summer 2004. In Arizona, neutral ENSO conditions most often result in below-average precipitation.
-
The best case scenario is that medium-range forecasts for continued storminess in the Southwest are correct and result in substantially increased mountain snowpack. The probability of La Niña and exceedingly dry conditions developing is low, and that’s good news!.